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TALAYINSIGHT
RegionMiddle East and North Africa

HighI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints8 October 2026, Thursday

Gulf–East Asia supertanker rates hit a record $1.4 million a day

Supertanker charter rates on the Persian Gulf–East Asia route hit an all-time high of about $1.4 million a day on 7 October, according to Bloomberg data. In early January the rate was about $30,000 a day.

Location: GULF OF OMAN

Oilprice reported on 8 October that the record reflects a shortage of ships and the fleet's concentration on operations around Hormuz. Much of the fleet is carrying out ship-to-ship transfers outside the strait; as flows recover, more vessels are tied up on this route and fewer tankers remain in other markets. According to an Oilprice analysis on 10 October, rates rose about 40% in the first week of October; the September record was just over $1 million a day.

Poten & Partners data cited by Gulf News on 5 October show a $1.3 million daily rate is 43 times January's level of about $30,000. On the same calculation, assuming Brent at $120, freight adds about $33 a barrel and makes up 27% of delivered cost. In January that share was 3%, or $1.73. Clarksons puts average global VLCC spot earnings at close to $642,000 a day.

The shortage has spread to the Atlantic. Reuters data cited by the Daily Caller show a 2 million-barrel November voyage from the US Gulf to China was chartered for $80 million. That is about $40 a barrel, against $8.60 before the war. Sparta Commodities says rates on this route have risen more than 300% since mid-August. Vitol chief executive Russell Hardy told the FT there are not enough ships to go round.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The Hormuz constraint now lies in ship numbers: the transshipment system built to bypass the strait is tying up the world's supertanker fleet. With freight above a quarter of delivered cost, ship availability rather than price decides where oil goes. The likeliest path is that rates stay high while the transshipment system lasts, and distant routes drop out of trade.

Likely effects

  • Distant crude tradeNegativeWeeks

    With US–Asia crude freight nearing $40 a barrel, the trade stops being economic and Asia turns to nearer sources.

  • Smaller tankersNegativeWeeks

    The VLCC shortage lifts demand for Suezmax and Aframax vessels, pushing rates higher on Mediterranean and Black Sea routes too.

  • TürkiyeNegative1–6 months

    As Suezmax and Aframax rates for crude bound for the Mediterranean climb, Türkiye's energy bill grows regardless of volume.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Rates stay high55%

    The transshipment system persists and VLCC rates hold above $1 million a day.

    Watch: Weekly Bloomberg and Clarksons VLCC Gulf–China rates

  2. 2
    Further tightening30%

    Attacks spread to the transshipment area, owners withdraw from the region, and rates set a new record.

    Watch: A new attack reported in the Gulf of Oman transshipment zone

  3. 3
    Unwinding15%

    Direct transit through Hormuz resumes, the need for transshipment falls and rates drop quickly.

    Watch: UKMTO weekly transit counts approaching pre-war levels

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • VLCC Gulf–East Asia▼ $1.4m/day
  • US–China freight▼ ~$40/bbl

Sources

  1. Oilprice — Supertanker Rates Hit Record $1.4 Million a Day
  2. Oilprice — Tanker Rates Soar to Record as Oil Crisis Becomes Shipping Crisis
  3. Gulf News — Tanker costs soar 43-fold as Hormuz tensions reshape global oil trade
  4. Daily Caller — Record $80,000,000 Shipping Bills Are Pricing American Oil Out Of Asia