MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints22 September 2026, Tuesday
Trump announces a huge deal to buy Belarusian potash; Lukashenko replies that this year's entire output is already contracted
On 21 September Trump announced that the United States would buy Belarusian potash at a price markedly below what it pays Canada. The next day Lukashenko said no exportable volume was left. In 2024, 80% of US potash came from Canada.
According to a UPI report dated 22 September, US President Donald Trump announced on 21 September that work was under way on a large deal to buy potash from Belarus, and that the price would be markedly below what is currently paid to Canada. On the same day Alexander Lukashenko said that even if they wished to supply Western markets, they did not have those volumes, because the whole of this year's output was under contract. A report by Eurointegration dated 22 September and one published by Ukrainska Pravda at 15.03 the same day likewise carry Lukashenko's statement that there is no exportable surplus of potash for this year. The two sides paint two mutually unconfirmed pictures of the same file: Washington says a deal is on the way, Minsk says there is nothing left to supply.
In the background is the sanctions swap of March 2026. According to UPI, the United States lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash producers in March 2026 and Belarus released 250 political prisoners the same month under a US-brokered agreement; in September 2026 the release of a further 25 prisoners was agreed. The same report notes that the United States imports almost all of its potash, and that in 2024, 80% of imports came from Canada, 16% from Russia and 4% from other countries including Israel and Germany. Canadian output comes mainly from Saskatchewan and ships through British Columbia ports. None of these sources contains a figure for Belarus's 2026 production and export volumes; Lukashenko's claim about capacity therefore could not be independently verified.
The real subject of the file is leverage, not fertiliser. Declaring an alternative supplier while 80% of US imports come from a single country, Canada, serves as a bargaining instrument in the continuing trade tension with Ottawa. At the same time potash revenue is a direct source of foreign currency for Minsk through the two state companies removed from the sanctions list in March 2026; this is also the economic counterpart of the swap chain continued by the release of 25 prisoners. According to Eurointegration, the United States had earlier pressed Ukraine to ease the restrictions it had placed on Belarusian fertilisers.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The contradiction between the announced deal and Minsk's answer suggests the file is being used less as physical fertiliser trade than as price leverage against Canada. With 80% of US imports coming from Canada, no meaningful substitution appears possible in the coming months. The most likely direction is that the deal stays at a symbolic level while sanctions relief and prisoner swaps remain the real line of bargaining.
Likely effects
- US fertiliser supplyUncertainWeeks
With 80% of imports from Canada and 16% from Russia, Belarus saying it has no exportable volume for this year shows that substitution is not possible in the coming months.
- The Belarus sanctions regimeUncertain1–6 months
Sanctions relief granted in return for the release of 250 political prisoners in March 2026 and 25 in September 2026 turns potash revenue into a bargaining subject for Minsk.
- US-Canada trade tensionNegativeWeeks
The claim of a price markedly below what is paid to Canada is an attempt by a buyer that sources 80% of its imports there to strengthen its price bargaining; it puts pressure on Ottawa.
- Fertiliser costs for TürkiyeUncertain1–6 months
Belarusian potash returning to global supply after sanctions could pull prices down; if it is true that the whole of output is contracted, that effect is deferred to 2027.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1The deal remains symbolic55%
Because 2026 output is contracted, no meaningful shipment is made to the United States; the announcement remains an instrument in price bargaining with Canada.
Watch: Whether volumes of Belarusian origin appear in US potash import statistics.
- 2Limited shipments under 2027 contracts30%
The parties reach a framework agreement for the 2027 production year and limited volumes of potash begin to flow to the United States.
Watch: A 2027 US contract announcement from Belaruskali or the Belarusian Potash Company.
- 3Sanctions relief widens15%
Further companies are delisted in return for new prisoner releases and the potash trade becomes institutionalised.
Watch: A new OFAC delisting or general licence decision concerning Belarus.
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Exportable surplus declared by Minsk▼ 0
- Prisoners released, March 2026▲ 250
- Prisoners due out, September 2026▲ 25