MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security5 November 2026, Thursday

Ryazan becomes the fifth Russian refinery hit since 30 October

Ukrainian drones targeted Rosneft's Ryazan refinery, which processes about 17 million tonnes a year, on the night of 5 November. According to Euromaidan Press, it is the fifth Russian refinery hit since 30 October.

Location: RYAZAN

According to the Kyiv Independent, Governor Malkov said the region had come under heavy drone attack and that fires had broken out at industrial sites, but he did not confirm damage to the refinery. Euromaidan Press wrote that Malkov later referred to more than 200 drones; the figure is the governor's claim and could not be verified. According to Meduza, 1 person was injured, power lines were damaged and part of the city lost electricity.

According to the Euromaidan Press tally, Novokuibyshevsk was hit on 30 October, Ufa on 31 October, Kstovo on 1 November and Yaroslavl on 3 November. The first three plants processed about 24 million tonnes of crude a year, roughly 10% of Russia's 2024 refining capacity. According to Reuters, the Ryazan refinery had halted one of its main crude units after an attack on 15 October. The Exilenova+ channel counts Ryazan as the sixth facility hit in a week; the discrepancy stems from two plants in Ufa.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

By targeting five refineries in a week, Ukraine is squeezing Russia's domestic fuel supply ahead of winter; the first three plants alone represented about 10% of 2024 capacity. With damage at Ryazan unconfirmed, the capacity loss is uncertain. Talay's reading is that pressure on refineries will continue until the Abu Dhabi talks on 10–11 November.

Likely effects

Russian product exportsNegativeWeeks
Unit losses at Ryazan and the other plants could curb diesel and gasoline export volumes; the scale could not be verified.
Russian domestic fuel supplyNegativeWeeks
Strikes on plants near Moscow strain fuel supply in the domestic market and military logistics.
Türkiye diesel importsNegative1–6 months
Buyers reliant on Russian diesel, Türkiye among them, may have to seek alternative supply if exports are disrupted.

Possibilities, ranked

1
The campaign continues55%
More than one refinery a week is targeted until the Abu Dhabi round, and repair times lengthen.
Watch: Reports of new drone attacks on Russian refineries
2
A pause before talks30%
Under US pressure, Kyiv suspends the strikes ahead of Abu Dhabi.
Watch: The opening of the trilateral Abu Dhabi round on 10–11 November
3
Russian export ban15%
If losses mount, Moscow restricts gasoline or diesel exports.
Watch: Russian government decrees on fuel exports

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Ryazan capacity▼ ~17m t/yr
Refineries hit since 30 October▼ 5

Bottom line

Likely effects

Possibilities, ranked

Sources