HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence24 September 2026, Thursday
Pakistan strikes 10 sites in Afghanistan after an incursion by 8 drones; the Taliban say 4 civilians were killed and vow to respond
Pakistan said it carried out air and drone strikes on 10 sites in Kandahar, Paktia and Khost in Afghanistan on the morning of 24 September. It cited 8 drones that entered its airspace near Torkham and Kohat on 23 September. Kabul denied responsibility, said 4 civilians had been killed and announced it would respond.
According to a Dawn report dated 24 September, Pakistan's Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said precision air and drone strikes had been carried out on 10 sites in Afghanistan that he said were used for launching and storing drones. According to Tarar, the trigger was 8 drones that entered Pakistani airspace near Torkham and Kohat on 23 September and were reportedly shot down. According to an Al Jazeera report dated 24 September, Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said the strikes targeted Kandahar, Paktia and Khost provinces and that at least 4 people were killed; Kabul did not claim the drone attacks and said it would respond appropriately. The casualty figures given by the Pakistani side for the targets could not be verified.
This is Pakistan's second air operation within a week: according to The Jerusalem Post, Islamabad said it had killed 28 militants in a strike on 21 September, while Kabul said 3 civilians had been killed. The starting point of the escalation was the attack on a police facility in Kohat; sources conflict on the death toll: Al Jazeera reports at least 21 dead, Dawn 23 and The Jerusalem Post at least 24. According to Al Jazeera, the strikes jeopardise the mediation efforts pursued by China, Türkiye, Qatar and Saudi Arabia since the clashes in February 2026.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
With two Pakistani air operations and a drone incursion between 21 and 24 September, the conflict has risen to the level of reciprocal inter-state strikes. Kabul's vow to respond and the wide gap between the two sides' casualty figures suggest that four-way mediation will struggle to halt the escalation in the near term. The most likely path is limited reciprocal strikes continuing for weeks.
Likely effects
- Border tradeNegativeWeeks
Drone incursions along the Torkham–Kohat line and strikes on 10 sites delay the reopening of border crossings already restricted for months and shrink local trade between the two countries.
- Türkiye's mediationUncertain1–6 months
The mediation Türkiye pursues with China, Qatar and Saudi Arabia carries prestige risk after two air operations in a week; at the same time it could make Ankara an indispensable channel between the two capitals.
- Pakistan's macro balanceNegative1–6 months
Rising defence spending and perceived security risk in a week of ongoing IMF review talks could put pressure on Pakistan's external financing costs.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Limited reciprocal strikes55%
The Taliban respond with artillery and drones against border posts, Pakistan continues targeted air strikes, and the conflict stays confined to the border provinces.
Watch: The location of the Taliban's announced retaliation and any new Pakistani strike announcement
- 2Temporary calm through mediation30%
Following an initiative by Qatar, Türkiye or Saudi Arabia, the parties sit down for a new round of talks and strikes pause for a few weeks.
Watch: An announcement of new Pakistan–Afghanistan talks in Doha or Istanbul
- 3Escalation reaching Kabul15%
Pakistan strikes targets around Kabul, as in March 2026, and the conflict returns to its February 2026 scale.
Watch: Reports of an air strike on central Kabul or Kandahar city
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Sites struck▼ 10
- Intruding drones▼ 8
- Dead, per the Taliban▼ 4