MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security10 November 2026, Tuesday
Pakistan's winter LNG tender draws bids above $27, outcome unclear
Bids opened on 10 November by Pakistan LNG Limited for two spot LNG cargoes for December and January delivery came in at $27.01–31 per MMBtu. TotalEnergies submitted the lowest bid. Sources conflict on whether the tender was rejected or sent to the board for approval.
Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL) tendered for two 140,000-cubic-metre spot cargoes for delivery to Port Qasim in Karachi. Minute Mirror reported on 11 November that the delivery windows are 14–16 December and 9–11 January. Three bids were received in total. For the December cargo, bids ranged from $27.27 to $31 per MMBtu, or 24.43–27.77 billion rupees per cargo. The single bid for the January cargo was $27.01 per MMBtu, about 24.28 billion rupees.
According to a 10 November evaluation report cited by TechJuice, TotalEnergies bid 24.43 billion rupees for the December cargo and QatarEnergy Trading 27.78 billion. The gap between them is about 3.3 billion rupees. Only TotalEnergies bid for the January cargo, bringing the combined value of the two cargoes to about 48.7 billion rupees. The same report recalls that some spot purchases after QatarEnergy's force majeure declaration on 4 March came in at $21.88 per MMBtu.
The sources tell different stories about the outcome. Minute Mirror wrote that all three bids were rejected because prices exceeded acceptable levels. Daily Times reported on 11 November that the two lowest bids had been sent to PLL's board and no final decision had been taken. TechJuice wrote that TotalEnergies won the tender. The sources make no mention of a war risk premium or cover terms for Port Qasim deliveries; these could not be verified for this entry.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The cheapest spot cargo Pakistan can find for winter supply costs more than $27 per MMBtu, well above the $21.88 paid in purchases after the force majeure. The real constraint is not the price but whether the board can pass this cost on to consumer tariffs. The most likely path is that at least one cargo is accepted despite the cost; otherwise the supply gap widens in mid-December.
Likely effects
- Gas supplyNegativeWeeks
If the bids are rejected, two planned cargoes will not reach Port Qasim in the 14–16 December and 9–11 January windows, widening the gap at peak winter demand.
- Tariffs and budgetNegative1–6 months
If a cost above 24 billion rupees per cargo is accepted, the burden lands either on consumer tariffs or on the gas sector's circular debt.
- Supplier competitionPositive1–6 months
TotalEnergies undercutting QatarEnergy by about 3.3 billion rupees on the December cargo strengthens the bargaining power of non-Qatari portfolio sellers.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1At least one cargo accepted55%
The PLL board approves the lowest bid, and the December cargo arrives at a price above $27 per MMBtu.
Watch: PLL board approval decision on the TotalEnergies bids
- 2Tender cancelled and reissued30%
The bids are rejected and PLL issues a new spot tender with a shorter tenor or different windows.
Watch: A new PLL spot tender for December–January delivery
- 3Curtailment instead of spot purchases15%
The government forgoes both cargoes and manages the December and January gap through gas curtailment rather than imports.
Watch: Gas distribution companies' December curtailment schedules
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- December cargo bids▼ $27.27–31/MMBtu
- January cargo bid▼ $27.01/MMBtu
- Total–Qatar bid gap▲ ~Rs3.3bn