LowII Cyber Warfare & Critical Infrastructure9 November 2026, Monday
Pakistan's software lobby says cybercrime raids are hurting exports
The Pakistan Software Houses Association (P@SHA) said on 9 November that raids on scam centres by the National Cyber Crime Investigation Agency (NCCIA) were also hitting legitimate software firms. The sector's exports reached a record 4.6 billion dollars in FY26.
According to Dawn on 10 November, the association relayed complaints from its members. Raid teams allegedly entered offices without showing search warrants, questioned staff for hours and seized laptops, servers and phones even where no wrongdoing was found. The association says this halted client deliveries and put foreign customers' data at risk. The NCCIA, for its part, says some fraudsters have registered themselves as IT companies.
As reported by TechJuice, the association wants unrelated seized equipment returned within 7 days and a strict chain of custody for foreign client data. It also asks that a firm's status be verified with the Pakistan Software Export Board before any raid, and that companies not be branded criminals before forensic findings emerge. Its chairman, Shoaib Ahmed Khan, put it briefly: "Every single dollar is earned on trust."
The constraint shows in the numbers. Dawn reports that IT exports rose from 3.8 billion dollars in FY25 to 4.6 billion dollars in FY26, against a government target of 10 billion dollars by FY29. A separate Dawn report on 8 November put telecommunications, computer and information services exports at 1.246 billion dollars for July–September, up 17.7%. The number of raids and the quantity of seized devices could not be verified from public sources.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Pakistan is fighting scam centres while trying to scale up software exports, and the two goals have begun to collide. For a foreign client the constraint is not the raid itself but the risk that its data falls outside any chain of custody. The likeliest path is a partial version of the joint verification mechanism the association wants, with raids continuing.
Likely effects
- Pakistan IT exportsNegative1–6 months
If foreign clients move contracts elsewhere over data-security worries, the 10 billion dollar FY29 target becomes harder to reach.
- Cybercrime enforcementPositive1–6 months
A joint verification mechanism would let the NCCIA target scam centres with less collateral damage.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Partial compromise, raids go on55%
The NCCIA accepts a liaison point for pre-raid verification, but no comprehensive procedural rule follows.
Watch: A joint meeting of the IT minister, the interior ministry and the NCCIA
- 2Formal procedural rule25%
The government publishes written procedures for seizures and data protection.
Watch: A written circular from the NCCIA or the Interior Ministry
- 3Tensions escalate20%
New large-scale raids sweep in legitimate firms and reports of lost foreign clients emerge.
Watch: Specific member cases published by the association
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- IT exports FY26▲ 4.6 billion dollars
- Equipment return demand▼ 7 days