MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt10 November 2026, Tuesday
Pakistan's remittances rise 13.8% in October despite the Gulf war
State Bank of Pakistan data released on 10 November show workers' remittances rising 13.8% year on year in October to $3.9 billion. The July–October total rose 14% to $14.8 billion, with Saudi Arabia again the largest source.
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) released the data on Tuesday 10 November. Dawn reported on 11 November that October inflows reached $3.9 billion, up 8.5% on September. The total for the first four months of the fiscal year reached $14.8 billion, against $13 billion a year earlier. SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad has set a target of $45 billion for fiscal 2026–27; inflows in 2025–26 exceeded $41 billion.
According to The Nation on 11 November, remittances from Saudi Arabia rose 17% in October to $982 million. Inflows from the UAE rose 16% to $816 million, and from the UK 19% to $592 million. Remittances from the US rose 9% to $329 million. Dawn says Saudi Arabia, at $3.668 billion, and the UAE, at $3.051 billion, held the top two places for July–October.
The figure matters because flows accelerated even though the Gulf war was expected to hit migrant employment. Dawn notes that the conflict could affect Pakistani workers' jobs and incomes, but no such effect shows up in the October data. Four-month growth from the UAE, at 13.5%, lagged last year's 15.2% pace. The sources draw no link between this slowdown and the war, and none could be verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
October's $3.9 billion inflow shows Pakistan's most stable source of foreign currency accelerating despite the Gulf war. These flows are the main buffer carrying the external financing burden of costly LNG imports and the IMF programme. The most likely path is a pace close to the $45 billion annual target; the risk is that job losses in the Gulf show up in the data with a lag.
Likely effects
- Current accountPositiveWeeks
Monthly inflows of $3.9 billion finance much of the import bill and limit pressure on the rupee.
- Gulf dependenceNegative1–6 months
Saudi Arabia sent $982 million and the UAE $816 million in October; a break in Gulf employment would cut the flow directly.
- IMF programmePositive1–6 months
A pace approaching the $45 billion annual target makes it easier to meet reserve accumulation conditions.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Pace holds near target60%
Monthly inflows stay close to October's $3.9 billion and the year approaches the $45 billion target.
Watch: November remittance data due from the SBP in early December
- 2Gulf-driven slowdown30%
Year-on-year growth in Saudi and UAE inflows falls well below October's 17% and 16%, and total growth drops below 14%.
Watch: Monthly changes in the Saudi Arabia and UAE lines
- 3Target revised up10%
Inflows rise even above October's $3.9 billion and the SBP raises its $45 billion projection again.
Watch: The SBP's updated 2026–27 projection
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- October remittances▲ $3.9bn
- Year-on-year growth▲ +13.8%
- July–October total▲ $14.8bn