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TALAYINSIGHT
RegionSouth Asia

MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence23 October 2026, Friday

Pakistan ties Taliban talks to action against Afghan-based militants

Pakistan's foreign ministry said on 23 October that talks with the Taliban are pointless without a credible mechanism against armed groups in Afghanistan. A day earlier the New York Times reported that Pakistani officials had met leaders of anti-Taliban groups. Islamabad dismisses such claims as baseless.

Location: DURAND LINE

According to Afghanistan International on 24 October, foreign ministry spokesman Sajjad Haider Khan set out 2 conditions at a 23 October briefing. The Taliban must acknowledge that terrorist groups operate in Afghanistan, and must set up 1 credible mechanism to stop attacks on neighbours. Citing UN monitoring team and SIGAR reports, Khan said more than 20 groups operate unchecked in Afghanistan and that more than 1,300 Pakistanis were killed in the past year. Islamabad added that it would reopen border crossings and resume trade if the Taliban act.

A New York Times report dated 22 October raised the temperature. As relayed by Afghanistan International, it said Pakistani military and intelligence officials had met leaders of anti-Taliban armed groups in recent months to discuss possible support. The same report said at least 1,100 Afghan civilians had been killed or wounded in fighting since late February. Former US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad wrote on X on 23 October that Pakistan was arming Afghans against the Taliban. According to Dawn on 24 October, the information ministry rejected the claims as baseless and misleading. The NYT claim could not be independently verified.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on 22 October that militants cross from Afghanistan every day, keeping the military option on the table. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid rejected the allegations on 23 October. The diplomatic ground is also narrowing. The 8th meeting of the Moscow Format, Russia's regional framework for Afghanistan, ended on 5 October without a joint statement. A Pakistani think tank says militancy-linked casualties rose 83% in the third quarter of 2026 to at least 1,415 deaths, 98% of them in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Islamabad appears to be attaching conditions to talks while keeping a proxy option open. If the NYT claim is confirmed, the conflict shifts from a border war to a proxy war. The inconclusive Moscow Format and the 83% rise in third-quarter casualties show how little room there is for a settlement in the coming weeks. The likeliest path is continued limited air and artillery strikes with the border crossings closed.

Likely effects

  • Pakistan–Afghanistan tradeNegative1–6 months

    With Islamabad tying the crossings to Taliban action, bilateral and transit trade stays shut; Pakistani exporters dependent on the Afghan market keep booking losses.

  • Pakistan's internal securityNegativeWeeks

    Operational tempo and emergency administration persist in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where 98% of the deaths are concentrated.

  • Regional mediationUncertain1–6 months

    Initiatives by China, Russia, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have failed; Türkiye's role remains on the table for a new round.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Conditional deadlock, limited conflict60%

    Talks do not start; Pakistan carries out limited cross-border air and artillery strikes.

    Watch: The status of the border crossings and any new Pakistani air strike announcement

  2. 2
    Slide into proxy war25%

    Anti-Taliban groups step up attacks inside Afghanistan, and the Taliban widen support for the TTP.

    Watch: Anti-Taliban groups claiming new attacks inside Afghanistan

  3. 3
    Mediated table15%

    The Taliban propose a monitoring mechanism and a new round of talks is scheduled.

    Watch: A Taliban proposal for a mechanism against armed groups, or a date for a new round

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Q3 militancy-linked deaths▼ 1,415+
  • Afghan civilian casualties since Feb▼ 1,100+

Sources

  1. Afghanistan International — Taliban Talks Depend On Action Against Afghan-Based Threats, Says Pakistan
  2. Afghanistan International — Pakistani Military, Intelligence Officials Met Anti-Taliban Leaders, Says NYT
  3. Dawn — Pakistan rejects ex-US envoy Khalilzad's 'baseless' allegations of arming Afghans to fight Taliban
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