MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints29 October 2026, Thursday
Pakistan reopens its airspace to Taiwanese airlines after four days
China Airlines and EVA Air were unable to overfly Pakistan from the morning of 25 October until 28 October, when the Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority granted both carriers transit permission until 27 March 2027. On 29 October Taiwan's cabinet accused Pakistan of weaponising its airspace.
Defence Minister Khawaja Asif told Bloomberg the aviation authority follows the one-China policy and only Chinese airlines are permitted. According to documents seen by Dawn, the permission covers 28 October to 27 March 2027, the IATA winter schedule. Taiwan's Ministry of Transportation said it would apply again for the summer schedule. Dawn later corrected its report and removed the statement that the ban rested on the one-China policy.
The disruption redrew both carriers' Asia–Europe routes within 4 days. Flightradar24 data show at least 12 flights routed over Russia after 25 October; Taiwanese carriers had voluntarily avoided Russian airspace since February 2022. Other flights shifted south over the Gulf. Taiwan's Civil Aviation Administration noted that it had never banned flights over Russia. No source quantified the extra flight time or fuel cost.
Cabinet spokeswoman Michelle Lee said on 29 October that Pakistan had endangered flight safety to curry favour with China. Deputy Foreign Minister Chen Ming-chi told AFP that Taipei suspected China was behind the move, but offered no evidence. Pakistan cut formal ties with Taiwan in 1951. As of 29 October, Pakistani officials had not publicly explained the contradiction between the ban and the permission.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The brief closure reveals a new lever through which Beijing can squeeze Taiwan logistically via its partners in the global south, without closing China's own airspace to Taiwanese carriers. Because the permission covers only the winter schedule, the issue can be reopened every schedule season, twice a year. The most likely path is that the permission holds but the March 2027 renewal becomes a fresh bargaining point.
Likely effects
- Taiwanese airlinesNegativeWeeks
Routes that bypass Pakistan grow longer via Russia or the Gulf; fuel and time costs rise on European flights, and the Russian route carries new political risk.
- Taiwan's diplomacyNegative1–6 months
In countries without formal ties to Taipei, technical access such as airspace comes to depend on governments that are close to Beijing.
- Europe–Asia air cargoUncertain1–6 months
A permission tied to the winter schedule creates routing uncertainty for Europe-bound cargo out of Taiwan at the start of every season.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Permission holds, renewal turns into leverage60%
Transit stays open through the winter schedule, and the March 2027 application becomes a new pressure point.
Watch: The Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority's response to the summer schedule application
- 2Others follow the example25%
Another country close to China imposes a similar restriction on Taiwanese airlines.
Watch: A new diversion around another country on China Airlines and EVA Air European routes
- 3Renewed closure15%
Pakistan withdraws the permission during the winter season, and Taiwanese carriers move permanently to the Russian route.
Watch: Taiwanese flights over Pakistan disappearing again on Flightradar24
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Flights routed over Russia▼ at least 12
- Transit permission expires▲ 27 March 2027