HighV Technology Geopolitics & AI28 September 2026, Monday
Beijing signals it will allow purchases of Nvidia's new RTX Pro 5500
According to a report in The Information on 27 September, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) signalled its intention to approve purchases of Nvidia's RTX Pro 5500 by ByteDance and Alibaba. ByteDance is reported to be considering an order of about 1 million units. As of 28 September, no official approval had been announced.
The Coin Republic reported on 28 September that MIIT asked domestic technology companies to state how many RTX Pro 5500 units they plan to buy and what they will use the chip for. The RTX Pro 5500 is a Blackwell workstation graphics processor with 84 GB of GDDR7 memory, released by Nvidia in September. According to Implicator, Nvidia plans to ship about 500,000 cards a quarter to China from December 2026. As of 28 September, Washington had not said whether the chip may be shipped to China.
Beijing had previously shut the door on this class of chip. According to Implicator, the Cyberspace Administration of China told major companies in September 2025 to halt RTX Pro 6000D testing and cancel orders. The Next Web reported on 14 May that the US had granted about 10 Chinese companies licences for up to 75,000 H200 units each, but shipments had not begun on Beijing's instructions. Nvidia excluded China data centre compute revenue entirely from its 108 billion dollar third-quarter forecast. According to Implicator, shares of Chinese domestic chipmakers fell between 3.7% and 6.3% on 28 September. The report rests on a single publication, and ByteDance's order of 1 million units could not be verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
While holding back the US-licensed H200, Beijing is opening the door to an Nvidia product of its own choosing. This shows the final say over chip flows into China shifting steadily from Washington to Beijing. The approval rests on a single-source report, and it is unclear whether the US will place the chip under export controls. The signal is therefore not yet a shipment.
Likely effects
- Global AI hardware demandPositive1–6 months
If approval comes, a new demand item is added on top of Nvidia's quarterly forecast, which excludes China; expectations of a forecast revision strengthen.
- China's domestic chip sectorNegativeWeeks
Domestic producers have priced in the return of Nvidia competition; if Beijing's quota stays small, the pressure will be limited.
- US export control debateUncertain1–6 months
A Blackwell-based chip going to China could strengthen calls in Congress for tighter controls and politicise the licensing process.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Approval with quotas55%
MIIT allows limited volumes, and shipments begin in small quantities in December.
Watch: Official approval statement from MIIT or Nvidia and December shipment data
- 2Washington applies the brakes25%
The US imposes a licence requirement for the RTX Pro 5500, or Congress ties tighter controls to the defence bill.
Watch: Commerce Department licensing statement and the defence bill vote
- 3Beijing pulls back20%
China defers approval because of its domestic chip priority, and shipments do not begin, as with the H200.
Watch: Chinese customs' approach to Nvidia shipments
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- ByteDance order considered▲ ~1 million units
- Planned quarterly shipments▲ ~500,000 cards
- Chinese chip stocks▼ −3.7% to −6.3%