Beijing now has the final say on chip sales to China

Nvidia's headquarters building in Santa Clara, California — Nvidia headquarters, Santa Clara, 4 August 2018 — archive photo, illustrativePhoto: Coolcaesar / Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0 · resized · Source

Why it matters

The export control debate still revolves around licences issued in Washington. Yet the 2026 data paint a different picture. The H200 that the US approved has not entered China, while the RTX Pro 5500 that Beijing pointed to has joined the queue before any clear answer from the US. China's industry ministry now decides which chip demand opens up for, in what volume and for which tasks. The truce timetable ending on 10 January raises the risk that this door turns into a bargaining chip.

Implications

China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology asked companies for volume and usage plans for the RTX Pro 5500 and reportedly signalled its intention to approve. The report that ByteDance is considering about 1 million units could not be verified.
H200 licences granted by the US in May, each for up to 75,000 units, did not turn into shipments on Beijing's instructions. Nvidia excluded China data centre revenue entirely from its 108 billion dollar quarterly forecast.
Shares of Chinese domestic chipmakers fell between 3.7% and 6.3% on 28 September. The yuan traded firmly at 6.7099 per dollar the same day on news of the truce.

Map: Beijing now has the final say on chip sales to China

The key to the door has changed hands

Since 2022, export controls in Washington have determined the flow of AI chips into China. In 2026 that equation reversed. According to a report in The Next Web on 14 May, the US Commerce Department licensed about 10 companies, including Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance and JD.com, to buy up to 75,000 H200 units each. The theoretical total was about 750,000 chips. However, the same report said Beijing told its companies to halt H200 orders, and not a single chip was shipped.

According to a TrendForce report on 9 July, Chinese companies had requested more than 400,000 H200 units at the start of the year. The total that Beijing was preparing to approve was below 200,000, less than half of demand. The same report said Beijing reserved the H200 for model training only. For inference, the stage at which a trained model generates responses for users, it required domestic processors such as Huawei's. Decisions are no longer made in Washington alone but in two capitals at once.

Why the RTX Pro 5500 is different

According to Implicator's summary of 27 September, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) told ByteDance and Alibaba it intends to approve their RTX Pro 5500 purchases. According to The Coin Republic, the ministry asked companies to report how many units they will buy and what they will use the chip for. The RTX Pro 5500 is a Blackwell workstation card with 84 GB of memory, launched in September. According to Implicator, Nvidia plans to ship about 500,000 cards a quarter to China from December 2026.

A year ago Beijing shut the door on a similar card. According to Implicator, the Cyberspace Administration of China told major companies in September 2025 to halt RTX Pro 6000D testing. This time it is acting selectively. It asks for volumes and intended use itself, and it grants approval itself. As of 28 September, Washington had not said whether this card may go to China. According to Implicator, an Nvidia spokesperson described US controls as outdated rules that cover even gaming products from about 5 years ago.

China is missing from Nvidia's forecast

According to The Coin Republic, Nvidia excluded China data centre compute revenue entirely from its third-quarter forecast of 108 billion dollars (±2%). The company's second-quarter data centre revenue was 89 billion dollars, while total revenue from customers in China and Hong Kong came to 7.88 billion dollars. The company set aside a 400 million dollar provision for H200 inventory. According to a Roll Call report on 23 September, H200 sales to China made up less than 1% of second-quarter data centre revenue.

If RTX Pro 5500 approval comes, it would therefore be a new item on top of Nvidia's current forecast. If the target of 500,000 cards a quarter is met, that volume would approach two-thirds of the total the US licensed for the H200. However, ByteDance's order of 1 million units rests on a single publication and could not be verified.

The brake in Washington

Congress is moving in the opposite direction. According to Roll Call, the amendment package to the 2027 defence bill contains 3 chip bills. They cover location tracking for chips, coordination of controls on allied equipment and writing into law an 18-month sales ban on the most powerful AI chips. The bills passed the House Foreign Affairs Committee by votes of 42-0, 36-8 and 42-2. Large volumes of a Blackwell-based card going to China would give these bills a fresh rationale.

The timetable is also tight. According to NBC News, Treasury Secretary Bessent said the tariff truce had been extended to 10 January 2027 instead of 10 November, and that a larger package could be discussed by then. Tying chip access to that package would give both sides additional bargaining power.

A move in the opposite direction on the same day

While the door on leading-edge chips passes to Beijing, capital for mature processes is moving outside China. According to TechNode Global, VSMC, the joint venture between Taiwan's VIS and the Netherlands' NXP, opened a 7.8 billion dollar fab in Singapore on 28 September. The facility will produce about 44,000 wafers a month by 2029 on 130–40 nm processes licensed from TSMC. According to Nikkei Asia, the first fab's capacity was fully sold at opening. Read together, the two developments make the picture clear. Buyers are paying to diversify their supply geography for mature chips, while access to the most advanced chips is set by the licensing regimes of two capitals.

What to watch

There are three signals for the next 30 days. The first is whether MIIT or Nvidia announces an official approval for the RTX Pro 5500 that includes volumes. The second is whether the US Commerce Department imposes a licence requirement on the card and whether the 3 bills in the defence bill come to a vote. The third is whether China applies to the RTX Pro 5500 the rule protecting domestic chipmakers in inference work. The yuan stood at 6.7099 on 28 September; a move above 6.90 would show truce tensions entering prices.

Probabilities

Scenarios

Scenario	Probability	Trigger	Market impact
H1Selective opening with quotas	50%	MIIT approves limited volumes of the RTX Pro 5500, and Washington imposes no licence requirement on the card.	Shipments begin in small volumes in December; Beijing continues to reserve inference work for domestic chips.
H2Washington applies the brakes	30%	The US Commerce Department imposes a licence requirement on the card, or Congress attaches the chip bills to the defence bill.	Like the H200, the RTX Pro 5500 is left in limbo between the two capitals; Beijing hardens its domestic chip priority.
H3Tied to the January package	20%	Chip access becomes a bargaining item alongside rare earths and tariffs in the 10 January truce negotiations.	Approval and licensing decisions are deferred to January, with both sides holding chips back for mutual concessions.

Module A

Constraints Matrix

STRUCTURAL AVG 4.0 · TACTICAL AVG 2.7Structural constraints dominate: the outcome is set more by these limits than by the actors' preferences.

Hard structural constraintspersistent · beyond the actors' will

Beijing's domestic chip priority · China
5/5
Beijing reserved the H200 for training only and required domestic processors for inference; it prepared approvals below 200,000 against demand of more than 400,000.
US licensing uncertainty · United States
4/5
As of 28 September, Washington had not said whether the RTX Pro 5500 may go to China; for the H200 it had licensed 10 companies for 75,000 units each.
Three chip bills in Congress · United States
4/5
Bills on location tracking, allied coordination and an 18-month sales ban passed committee by 42-0, 36-8 and 42-2 and were attached to the defence bill.
Truce timetable
3/5
The tariff truce ends on 10 January 2027; a larger package or a further extension is under discussion before then.

Tactical frictiontemporary · eases over time

Single-source report days
3/5
MIIT's approval signal and ByteDance's reported consideration of 1 million units rest on a single publication; there is no official confirmation.
Customs practice weeks
3/5
H200 licences were granted in May, but no shipments took place on Beijing's instructions; a similar obstacle could recur with the new card.
Shipment timetable months
2/5
Nvidia's China shipments of about 500,000 cards a quarter are due to begin in December 2026; production and licensing could shift the timetable.

Module B

Signal vs Noise

SIGNAL 60% · NOISE 40%

SIGNAL
Beijing is building a licensing regime in which it sets volumes and intended use itself
MIIT asked companies for volume and usage plans for the RTX Pro 5500; for the H200, approvals below 200,000 were prepared against demand of more than 400,000.
TrendForce — China reportedly to allow NVIDIA H200 imports, but approvals may fall below 200K chips
SIGNAL
Markets priced Nvidia's return to China as a loss for domestic producers
Shares of Chinese domestic chipmakers fell between 3.7% and 6.3% on 28 September.
Implicator — China signals approval for ByteDance, Alibaba purchases of Nvidia RTX Pro 5500
SIGNAL
A US licence alone does not produce shipments
In May the US licensed about 10 companies for 75,000 H200 units each; not a single chip was shipped, on Beijing's instructions.
The Next Web — US clears H200 sales to 10 Chinese firms, but not a single chip has shipped
NOISE
ByteDance will buy 1 million RTX Pro 5500 units
The figure comes from a single publication's report; as of 27–28 September, neither MIIT, Nvidia nor ByteDance had confirmed any volume.
The Coin Republic — Nvidia News: China could reopen chip sales as ByteDance eyes 1M
NOISE
A strong yuan shows chip tensions are over
The yuan strengthened to 6.7099 on 28 September, but the move was tied to the 30 billion dollar tariff cut and the truce extension, not to the chip decision.
Data: USD/CNY ›Trading Economics — Chinese yuan

Module C

Asset-Class and Positioning Implications

Asset class	Exposure	Transmission channel	H1	H2	H3	Expected	Conviction	Horizon	What to watch
Equities	Global AI hardware sector	Chinese demand re-entering forecasts shapes sector revenue expectations	+	−	0	+0.20	●●●	3–12 months	MIIT approval statement and December shipment data
Equities	China's domestic semiconductor sector	Return of Nvidia competition or continued protected demand	−	++	0	+0.10	●●●	3–12 months	Beijing's domestic chip requirement for inference work
FX	Yuan	Expansion of the truce package or chip-driven tension	+	−	−	0.00	●●●	0–3 months	USD/CNY thresholds of 6.65 and 6.90
Volatility	Technology equity volatility	Uncertainty over licensing decisions in both capitals	−	++	+	+0.30	●●●	0–3 months	US Commerce Department licensing statement and the defence bill vote

Second-order effects

And then what?

Starting point

On 27 September China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology signalled its intention to approve RTX Pro 5500 purchases. Meanwhile, the H200 licences the US granted in May did not turn into shipments on Beijing's instructions.

1
China licensing regimewithin weeks
When announcing approved volumes, Beijing keeps its rule reserving inference work for domestic chips. Nvidia's China plan of about 500,000 cards a quarter is capped by this quota.
Watch: Volume and usage conditions in MIIT's approval statement
2
US legislative processwithin months
A Blackwell-based card going to China gives the 3 chip bills in Congress a new rationale. The 18-month sales ban gains strength in defence bill negotiations.
Watch: Senate vote on the defence bill amendment package
3
Truce negotiationswithin months
Licences in both capitals are carried into the 10 January truce negotiations. Chip access enters the same bargaining package as rare earths and tariff cuts.
Watch: Statements from the US–China trade council before 10 January

What breaks the chain

If the US Commerce Department treats the RTX Pro 5500 as outside existing controls and Beijing announces volumes quickly, the chain becomes a technical commercial transaction at the first step. If the chip bills are stripped from the defence bill, the second step weakens.

Triggers

Thresholds to watch

Indicator	Threshold	Today	What it means
USD/CNY	> 6.90	6.7105	A marked weakening of the yuan from 6.7099 on 28 September would show the 10 January truce coming under strain in chip and tariff bargaining.
USD/CNY	< 6.65	6.7105	Continued yuan strength would show markets pricing expectations that the truce package will be expanded.

Sources

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