MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints15 September 2026, Tuesday
At least 60–70 people killed in the collapse of a gold mine in RSF-controlled West Kordofan
Shafts dug side by side at the El Zara mine near En Nahud in West Kordofan collapsed in a chain. The death toll ranges from 60 to 82 depending on the source. The area is controlled by the RSF, which relies on gold revenue.
According to Al Jazeera, shafts dug very close to one another at the El Zara (Al-Zaraa) gold mine near the town of En Nahud collapsed in a chain. At least 70 people were killed, and some reports put the death toll at 82. An RSF source spoke of 50 injured. Radio Tamazuj reports that the Sudan Doctors Network recorded more than 67 deaths and Reuters at least 60. The date of the collapse is also disputed: sources say either Sunday (13 September) or Tuesday (15 September). No specialist rescue team was sent, and search efforts were left to civilian miners with primitive tools.
The incident exposes the economic lifeline of Sudan's war. West Kordofan is under RSF control, and smuggled gold is one of the group's main sources of revenue. Sudan is among Africa's leading gold producers, but most output comes from informal sites without safety measures. The Doctors Network criticised unregulated mining in RSF areas. The origin of gold revenues and the channels through which gold is sold are becoming increasingly decisive in debates on the arms embargo and sanctions. Disasters of this kind also make visible the human cost of the war economy in the region.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The collapse does not change the military balance, but it exposes the human cost of the informal gold mining on which the RSF's war economy relies. Contradictions over the death toll and date show how weak independent verification capacity is in the area. The most likely outcome is mining resuming soon under the same unsafe conditions; the incident adding arguments to sanctions debates on gold sales channels is possible over the medium term.
Likely effects
- Civilian miners and humanitarianNegativeWeeks
No specialist rescue team was sent and searches relied on primitive tools, showing the collapse of basic public services in RSF areas. Thousands of civilian miners working at sites without safety measures remain exposed to similar disasters.
- RSF finance and sanctionsUncertain1–6 months
Because smuggled gold is one of the RSF's main revenue sources, the incident links to arms embargo and sanctions debates. International scrutiny of the gold's origin and sales channels may increase, though it is unlikely to cut revenue in the near term.
- Sudan's war economyNegative6 months+
Informal gold output sustains the parties' capacity to finance the war and contributes to prolonging the conflict. Unregulated mining also erodes the state's tax and export revenue.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Mining continues under same conditions80%
The incident remains a local disaster; mining resumes soon at the site and nearby shafts without safety measures.
Watch: Local reports of continued mining in the area and no statement from the RSF on oversight.
- 2New pressure on gold channels15%
The incident becomes an additional rationale for sanctions or international scrutiny targeting RSF-linked gold trade.
Watch: New sanctions decisions targeting RSF gold revenue, or UN-level initiatives on the gold trade.
- 3Oversight step in RSF areas5%
Under pressure, the RSF administration announces safety or licensing rules for mining sites.
Watch: An official announcement by RSF-controlled administrations on regulating mining sites.
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.