MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence28 September 2026, Monday
Taiwan drafts new production programme for 200 anti-ship missiles
According to the Taipei Times on 28 September, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence has drawn up a 22 billion NT dollar (692.3 million US dollar) programme to acquire about 200 upgraded Hsiung Feng anti-ship missiles in 2027–2035. These would come on top of the 1,400 missiles in the existing plan.
According to an unnamed senior defence official, the programme covers upgraded versions of the subsonic Hsiung Feng II and the supersonic Hsiung Feng III and will be funded from the regular defence budget. The new missiles will use advanced chips with signal-filtering capability. The aim is to overcome electronic countermeasures, the jamming methods that confuse radar and guidance. Together with the 1,400 missiles in the current Sea-Air Combat Power Improvement Plan, total requirements are estimated at about 1,600 missiles.
Officials said 2 to 4 missiles would be needed to sink each Chinese navy warship, and that the war in Ukraine has shown the importance of sustained production capacity. According to a Defence Blog report from August 2025, Taiwan was at that time also planning to produce 232 additional Hsiung Feng missiles; whether the two programmes overlap could not be verified. On the same day, the Taipei Times reported that a 14 billion dollar US arms package was still awaiting Trump's approval.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
With a 14 billion dollar US package in limbo, Taiwan is choosing to keep its domestic anti-ship missile line running until 2035. The 22 billion NT dollar programme will not shift the balance on its own. But the target of about 1,600 missiles shows the island leaning on domestic production to hedge against uncertainty in foreign supply.
Likely effects
- Deterrence in the StraitPositive6 months+
The stockpile target of about 1,600 missiles aims to raise the cost of an amphibious operation by the Chinese navy; at 2–4 missiles per ship, stockpile depth becomes decisive.
- US arms salesUncertain1–6 months
The 14 billion dollar package awaiting approval is accelerating Taipei's turn to domestic production and feeding the debate over dependence on Washington.
- Chinese reactionNegativeWeeks
Beijing may read the programme as a Taiwanese armament step and use it to justify military pressure in the Strait.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Programme enters the budget70%
The Legislative Yuan approves the first appropriation in the 2027 defence budget, and production begins in 2027.
Watch: Legislative Yuan deliberations on the 2027 defence budget
- 2Budget cuts20%
Cuts are made during budget talks, and the 200-missile figure or the 2027 start is scaled back.
Watch: Motions in the Legislative Yuan to cut the defence budget
- 3Merged with the US package10%
Trump approves the 14 billion dollar package, and Taipei rescales the domestic programme.
Watch: Arms sale notification to the US Congress
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- New programme budget▲ NT$22 billion
- Additional anti-ship missiles▲ ≈200
- Total missile requirement▲ ≈1,600