MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence25 September 2026, Friday · 13:24 TRT (UTC+3)
Taiwan rejects Xi's call for the US to oppose Taiwanese independence as 'distorting facts'; more than 60 US lawmakers back Taipei
Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs on 25 September rejected Xi's request, made during his 23–25 September visit, that the US adopt a stance opposing independence, and said the Republic of China and the PRC are not subordinate to each other. The White House had not published a readout of the talks by that evening; a $14 billion arms package has been on hold since May.
According to a Focus Taiwan report at 18:24 (Taipei time) on 25 September, in the Chinese Foreign Ministry's readout of the talks Xi asked the US to maintain the correct stance of opposing Taiwanese independence. Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs described this as Beijing's tactic of distorting facts and noted that more than 60 bipartisan US senators and representatives had expressed support for Taiwan. According to the same report, the 3-day visit was Xi's first White House visit in 11 years and his 2nd meeting with Trump in 2026, after the Beijing summit in May; the White House had not published its own readout by Thursday night. According to the Seoul Economic Daily, the crux of the dispute is the demand that Washington shift from the wording 'does not support' to 'opposes'.
According to a 26 September Taipei Times report, the Mainland Affairs Council disputed Xi's remark that the US and China fought shoulder to shoulder in the Second World War, arguing that the PRC was founded in 1949, that the wartime ally was the Republic of China and that the CCP devoted only 10% of its effort to fighting Japan; this percentage claim could not be independently verified. According to IBTimes, in addition to the $14 billion US arms package pending since May there is a backlog of around $30 billion in approved but undelivered arms; Trump had described the package as a bargaining chip in May. According to the Taipei Times, no new decision on arms sales was announced at the summit.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Beijing tried to use the summit to shift the US Taiwan formula from 'does not support' to 'opposes'; the White House's failure to publish a readout left it unclear whether this demand was accepted. Taipei's swift and sharp response and the support of more than 60 lawmakers in Congress show that a change of wording at executive level would be costly in domestic politics; the fate of the $14 billion package is the real indicator.
Likely effects
- Taiwan's defenceNegative1–6 months
The $14 billion package and the delivery backlog of around $30 billion show that Taiwan's access to US arms remains tied to summit diplomacy.
- US–China rhetoricUncertain1–6 months
The White House not responding in writing to the 'opposes' wording in the Chinese readout leaves room for Beijing to use this language as a gain in subsequent talks.
- Türkiye and supply chainsNegative6 months+
Rising diplomatic tension in the Taiwan Strait could heighten perceived supply risk for Turkish electronics and automotive manufacturers dependent on chip imports.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Uncertainty persists60%
Washington officially says policy is unchanged, but the $14 billion package stays on hold until 10 January.
Watch: Taiwan wording in State Department briefings and package notification
- 2Package approved25%
Under congressional pressure part of the arms package is notified to Congress, and Beijing signals retaliation in the trade truce.
Watch: DSCA sale notification to Congress
- 3US wording changes15%
The White House or Trump explicitly uses the wording 'opposes' independence.
Watch: White House readout or Trump statement
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- US arms package on hold▼ $14 billion
- Undelivered arms backlog▼ ~$30 billion
- US lawmakers backing Taiwan▲ 60+