European gas breaks 100 euros at a four-year high as storage hits record lows

According to Oilprice, the front-month TTF contract touched 101.82 euros on the morning of 30 October, topping 100 euros for the first time since 2022. Trading Economics recorded the day at about 103.6–104 euros, with two different values on the site. CNBC says TTF is up about 36% on the month and 256% on the year; Trading Economics gives a monthly rise of 40.58%. The differences stem from the choice of contract and time. Even so, the price remains below the 139 euros of 5 December 2022 and the 339 euros of August 2022.

The real constraint is storage. Gas Infrastructure Europe data put fill levels at 74.89% on 29 October, against a five-year average of about 86%. Because withdrawals have started in several countries, Oilprice does not expect fill levels to rise meaningfully. Disruption in Hormuz prevented summer injections. In a note dated 29 October, ING's Warren Patterson said he saw no relief in Gulf LNG flows. He also cited unplanned outages in Norway and possible US strikes after 3 November as risks.

On the supply side, QatarEnergy extended the force majeure in place since April to the end of 2026. Force majeure suspends a seller's obligation to deliver under contract. Edison said three more cargoes would not arrive, and Pakistan and Bangladesh are also affected. Pakistan expects to pay more than 1 billion dollars for winter LNG and to buy 10 spot cargoes at twice the Qatari contract price. Macquarie's Peter Taylor said Europe is effectively betting on a mild winter. BlackRock wrote in a 27 October note that the energy shock had cut European growth by about 0.5%, and that a cold winter could push prices higher still.