LowIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt22 September 2026, Tuesday
The consumer confidence index rises to 91.9 in September, its highest level since July 2018
In the TurkStat-CBRT survey the index rose 1.3% from 90.8 in August to 91.9; it remained below the 100 threshold and the sub-index for the current financial situation fell to 75.3.
According to the September 2026 results of the Consumer Tendency Survey conducted jointly by TurkStat and the CBRT, the consumer confidence index rose 1.3% on the previous month, from 90.8 to 91.9. That is the highest level since July 2018, when the index stood at 92.9. Because the index remains below the 100 threshold, the overall picture on the consumer side is still regarded as pessimistic.
The sub-indices split the picture in two. The index for the household's current financial situation fell 0.1% from 75.4 to 75.3; by contrast, expectations for the household's financial situation over the next 12 months rose 0.6% from 93.1 to 93.7 and expectations for the general economic situation rose 0.5% from 89.4 to 89.8. The strongest move came in the index for the propensity to spend on durable goods, up 3.6% from 105.1 to 108.8; that is the only sub-index above the 100 threshold.
On the producer side the picture is flatter. According to data published by the CBRT on 21 September, the seasonally adjusted Real Sector Confidence Index rose 0.1 points to 102.5, while the unadjusted index fell 0.8 points from 102.8 in August to 102.0, its lowest level in five months. In manufacturing, the seasonally adjusted capacity utilisation rate rose 0.6 points to 74.1% and the unadjusted rate 0.7 points to 74.2%, recovering after two months of decline. The items pulling the index down were export order expectations for the next three months, stocks of finished goods, fixed capital investment expenditure and production volume expectations.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Consumer confidence reaching an eight-year peak at 91.9 reads well as a headline, but the content is weak: while the current financial situation fell to 75.3, the increase comes entirely from 12-month expectations and from the propensity to spend on durable goods, which rose to 108.8. That combination may reflect spending brought forward not by today's income but by expectations for the exchange rate and inflation. On the producer side, the unadjusted real sector index falling to 102.0 shows demand and supply outlooks diverging.
Likely effects
- Household spendingUncertainWeeks
The propensity to spend on durable goods rising from 105.1 to 108.8 points to purchases brought forward in a week when the dollar renewed its record at 48.82 lira; that supports sales in the near term but feeds demand-side inflation.
- Manufacturing industryUncertain1–6 months
Capacity utilisation rising to 74.1% means a recovery after two months of decline; but export order expectations and fixed capital investment pulling the index down weaken the sustainability of that recovery.
- Monetary policyPositive1–6 months
Confidence data remaining below the 100 threshold and the current financial situation falling to 75.3 show domestic demand is not overheating; for the CBRT that is a signal that makes it easier to hold the policy rate at 37%.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1A flat path with a slight rise55%
Consumer confidence stays in a 90-95 band without passing the 100 threshold; the real sector index trades flat around 102.
Watch: Whether the October consumer confidence index stays above 91.9, and the level of the current financial situation sub-index around 75.
- 2A currency shock reverses confidence30%
The run of records in the dollar continues, expectation indices retreat and consumer confidence falls back below 90.
Watch: The dollar/lira rate moving into a 49-50 band and the 12-month general economic expectation falling below 89.8.
- 3A clear improvement15%
Inflation expectations ease and the currency calms; consumer confidence passes 95 for the first time since 2018 and capacity utilisation rises above 75%.
Watch: Capacity utilisation passing 75% and the unadjusted real sector index returning above 103.
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Consumer confidence index▲ 91.9
- Durable goods index▲ 108.8
- Real sector confidence index▼ 102.0
- Capacity utilisation rate▲ 74.1%