MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints21 September 2026, Monday
Export producer prices rose 32.60% year on year in August, with the increase in energy reaching 106.24%
According to TurkStat data, export prices rose 3.61% on the month; energy rose 14.68% on the month and 106.24% on the year, carrying the oil shock originating in Hormuz into Türkiye's foreign trade prices.
According to data published by the Turkish Statistical Institute on 21 September, the Export Producer Price Index rose 3.61% in August 2026 on the previous month and 32.60% on the same month of the previous year. The increase since the start of the year was 25.16% and the increase on twelve-month averages 32.35%. By sector, mining and quarrying rose 43.41% year on year and manufacturing 32.41%; the increase measured 56.40% in metal ores and 41.29% in chemicals.
Among the main industrial groupings the sharpest move is in energy: an annual increase of 106.24% and a monthly increase of 14.68%. Sources reporting the TurkStat breakdown also show this 106.24% increase in the coke and refined petroleum products line. The annual increase was 32.39% in intermediate goods and 20.59% in capital goods, while durable consumer goods rose 4.38% on the month. With non-energy groups staying in a 20-33% band, the acceleration in the index comes not from broad-based demand pressure but directly from oil and refinery product prices.
This picture measures how the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz enters Türkiye's balance sheet. With Türkiye largely an importer of crude oil and LPG, energy export prices more than doubling in a year changes both refining margins and exporters' cost structures. The same day the dollar renewed its record at 48.80 lira; because the exchange rate and energy prices are pressing in the same direction together, the disinflation path within annual consumer inflation of 31.51% is weakening.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Energy standing alone at 106.24% within an annual increase of 32.60% in export producer prices shows that the deterioration in Türkiye's foreign trade prices is driven by supply and geopolitics rather than demand. Non-energy groups remaining in a 20-33% band confirms it. The most likely path is that the energy line keeps pulling the index up for as many months as the Hormuz disruption lasts, with that cost passing into domestic producer prices with a lag of a few months.
Likely effects
- Türkiye's current accountNegativeWeeks
Energy prices rising 106.24% year on year directly threatens a current account that posted a slim surplus of 36 million dollars in July; as the energy leg of the import bill grows, that surplus could turn into a deficit.
- Exporter competitivenessNegative1–6 months
Manufacturing export prices rising 32.41% year on year strains price competition in energy-intensive sectors. The 32.39% increase in intermediate goods indicates the cost is spreading along the chain.
- The disinflation pathNegative1–6 months
With annual consumer inflation at 31.51%, an increase of 32.60% on the producer side makes it harder for the 28.4% year-end forecast in the Medium Term Programme to hold.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1The energy line keeps pulling the index up55%
The Hormuz disruption continues, the annual increase in energy stays above 100% and the export PPI runs above 30% in September and October.
Watch: The annual increase in the energy main industrial grouping in the September export PPI and whether the monthly pace of 14.68% is repeated.
- 2A slowdown in energy on base effects30%
Oil flows partly normalise, the annual increase in energy falls below 100% and the headline annual increase in the export PPI eases below 30%.
Watch: Daily Hormuz transits approaching the pre-war level and Brent falling below 90 dollars.
- 3A second energy shock15%
A further supply interruption reaccelerates the energy line; the monthly increase in the export PPI passes 5% and the pass-through to domestic producer prices quickens.
Watch: The monthly export PPI passing 5% and the monthly increase in the domestic PPI rising above 3%.
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Export product prices (export PPI)▲ +32.60% y/y
- Energy export prices▲ +106.24% y/y
- Dollar/lira▲ 48.82 lira
- Mining product prices▲ +43.41% y/y
Historical context
USD/TRY, last 6 months
- 116/09 · BIST 100 fell 5.54% to 13,122.58 points as 17 stocks closed at the floor price
- 217/09 · Diesel passed 100 lira a litre in Türkiye for the first time: a third consecutive increase
- 321/09 · Central government debt stock rose by 422.5 billion lira in August to 15.89 trillion lira; foreign-currency share at 51%
- 421/09 · The dollar reaches an all-time high of 48.82 lira as the BIST 100 falls 1.92% at midday to 13,028.71 points
- 521/09 · The 72,825 dwt tanker LR Stephanie is struck in Hormuz and two seafarers wounded; weekend transits fall to 17 ships
- 621/09 · Export producer prices rose 32.60% year on year in August, with the increase in energy reaching 106.24%
- 723/09 · Dollar hits new high of 48.84 lira on 23 September; calculations show CBRT reserves fell $13.9 billion in 4 weeks to $174.5 billion
- 824/09 · BIST 100 falls 2.74% to 12,888 points on 24 September as the 2-year lira bond yield climbs to 37.09%: Fed and oil pressure hit Turkish assets
- 924/09 · CBRT official data: in the week of 18 September gross reserves fell by 4.3 billion dollars to 174.4 billion, net reserves by 6.4 billion to 55.8 billion
- 1025/09 · Türkiye's CDS tops 250 for the first time since 27 May: as the $18 billion liquidation of 131 funds proceeds, Erdoğan says no systemic risk; 45 arrested
- 1126/09 · Yılmaz puts the war's impact on inflation at 7 points, citing CBRT calculations; 10-year yield ended the week higher at 32.77% on 25 September
- 1230/09 · BIST 100 enters a bear market after losing 5% in two days
- 1310/10 · Türkiye extends FX-loss exemption in capital-loss tests for another year
- 1404/11 · Lira's real value climbs to its highest since February 2020