MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence24 September 2026, Thursday

At the White House, Xi asks Trump to oppose Taiwan independence; no decision announced on the 14-billion-dollar arms package on hold since May

According to the Chinese readout of the 24 September meeting, Xi asked the US to maintain its position of opposing Taiwan independence and to exercise caution on Taiwan. No immediate readout came from the White House; the fate of the 14-billion-dollar arms sale halted in May was not announced at the summit.

Location: TAIPEI

According to a Time report of 24 September, Xi said he hoped the US would maintain its position of opposing Taiwan independence, and in the same meeting asked the US and Iran to return to negotiations and to the 14-point memorandum of understanding reached earlier. According to a The Business Standard report dated 24–25 September, Xi asked Trump to be cautious on Taiwan and to oppose independence, and argued that the Iran war should be ended through negotiation as soon as possible. According to the same report, Trump said on 24 September that great progress had been made on the two countries' problems, but gave no details on Taiwan.

According to an Al Jazeera report dated 22 May, Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao had announced that the 14-billion-dollar Taiwan arms sale was paused to preserve munitions for the Iran war; the package, which passed Congress in January 2026, is awaiting presidential approval. According to a Seoul Economic Daily report of 24 September, President Lai Ching-te's national security team met before the summit, and Taipei conveyed publicly and through diplomatic channels the message that there was no change in current US Taiwan policy. The main concern in Taipei is that the 17 August Communiqué of 1982, which contains a commitment to limit arms sales, could be brought to the table; a separate 11.1-billion-dollar package approved in December 2025 remains in force, according to Al Jazeera.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Beijing is seeking rhetorical gains on Taiwan alongside the trade truce, while Washington is keeping the 14-billion-dollar package on hold both on munitions grounds and as a bargaining chip. The most likely path is that the package waits undecided until the January negotiations and the US does not openly change its official Taiwan language.

Likely effects

Taiwan defence planningNegative1–6 months
The 14-billion-dollar package remaining on hold clouds Taipei's procurement timetable and, together with the risk of reference to the 1982 communiqué, weakens its deterrence calculus.
Regional allies' confidenceNegative6 months+
The possibility of the US linking Taiwan to trade concessions is increasing the search for reassurance among allies such as Japan and the Philippines.
Semiconductor supply riskUncertain6 months+
Political uncertainty around Taiwan keeps a risk premium alive in the chip supply chain; stockpiling and alternative sourcing plans gain importance for chip-importing industries, including in Türkiye.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Package stays on hold60%
Washington does not change its official language but does not approve the 14-billion-dollar package before the January negotiations.
Watch: A State Department arms sale notification to Congress or a White House statement
2
Package partly approved25%
Under congressional pressure part of the package is approved, and Beijing responds with a limited countermeasure.
Watch: A new DSCA sale notification for Taiwan
3
US changes its language15%
Washington states in writing that it explicitly opposes Taiwan independence, and the political crisis in Taipei deepens.
Watch: Wording opposing independence in a White House or State Department text

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Arms package on hold▼ 14 billion $
December 2025 package▲ 11.1 billion $

Bottom line

Likely effects

Possibilities, ranked

Sources