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TALAYINSIGHT
RegionAsia-Pacific

HighI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints24 September 2026, Thursday · 00:40 TRT (UTC+3)

Xi lands in Washington on his first US state visit in 11 years; on the summit's eve, Greer expects no extension this week of the truce ending 10 November

Xi Jinping landed at Joint Base Andrews at 00:40 TRT on 23 September and was greeted on the tarmac by Trump. Ahead of the 24 September summit, USTR Greer said an extension of the tariff truce ending on 10 November was unlikely this week; a 14 billion dollar Taiwan arms package has been on hold since May.

Location: WASHINGTON

As reported by PBS and the Seoul Economic Daily, Xi's aircraft landed at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland at around 17:40 US Eastern Time on 23 September (00:40 TRT on 24 September); Trump and his wife greeted Xi on the tarmac. This is Xi's first US state visit since 2015, 11 years on, and the two leaders' 3rd meeting of Trump's second term. The programme runs for 3 days: on 24 September a welcome ceremony at the White House, bilateral talks and a state dinner; on 25 September a tea meeting and a visit to the National Archives. The summit itself had not yet taken place at the time this entry was written; its outcomes could not be verified.

According to the Seoul Economic Daily, USTR Jamieson Greer said he did not consider an agreement on extending the truce ending on 10 November likely this week and did not expect a grand bargain. The sides differ on the length of an extension: according to the newspaper's report dated 24 September, China wants a 1-year extension while the US wants a briefer period of 3–6 months; its report dated 23 September, however, states that China wants an extension of 6 months or more, and that the US in return is demanding expanded rare earth supply and increased agricultural purchases. Two figures are thus reported for the period China is seeking.

On Taiwan, according to NBC and AP, Trump halted a record 14 billion dollar arms package after the Beijing summit in May; an 11.1 billion dollar package had been approved in December 2025. The Taipei Times, citing anonymous sources, wrote that Beijing wants all sales and deliveries halted and has offered in return to apply pressure on Iran. Taiwan's Defence Ministry spokesperson Major General Chiao Fu-chun said they would continue to advance procurement arrangements with the US. Analysts expect few concrete outcomes from the summit; the two leaders will meet again at the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November and the G20 summit in Miami in December.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Protocol gestures such as the tarmac welcome signal a desire to soften the relationship, but the core bargaining items, such as the length of the truce ending on 10 November and the 14 billion dollar Taiwan package, remain open. Greer's statement that he expects no extension this week makes it the most likely path that the summit ends with a declaration of intent rather than concrete decisions, and that bargaining shifts to APEC in November.

Likely effects

  • Global tradeNegativeWeeks

    Approaching 10 November without clarity on the truce's duration pushes firms to defer ordering and inventory decisions in US–China supply chains; rare earth supply remains at the centre of the bargaining.

  • Taiwan securityNegative1–6 months

    The 14 billion dollar package being on hold since May is steering Taipei towards domestic defence spending; its continued use as a bargaining chip prolongs uncertainty over the US commitment.

  • Turkish exportsUncertain1–6 months

    A renewed rise in US–China tariffs could divert Chinese surpluses to third markets, meaning price pressure for Turkish manufacturers. Extension of the truce would defer this risk.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Declaration of intent, decision at APEC55%

    The summit ends with process steps such as an AI dialogue and a trade board; the length of the truce extension is left to APEC in November.

    Watch: Whether White House and Chinese Foreign Ministry statements after the 24 September summit mention the truce period

  2. 2
    A brief extension is announced30%

    The sides agree at the summit on a 3–6 month extension, with China committing in return to rare earth and agricultural purchases.

    Watch: References in a joint statement to the 10 November date and rare earth licences

  3. 3
    Tension over the Taiwan package15%

    No compromise emerges on the Taiwan package, congressional pressure mounts and truce talks stall before November.

    Watch: Whether the State Department notifies Congress of the 14 billion dollar package

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Tariff truce expiry▼ 10 November
  • Taiwan package on hold▼ $14 billion
  • Yuan / dollar▲ being watched

Historical context

USD/CNY, last 6 months

6.67366.73916.80466.87016.935626/0306/0511/0616/0721/0828/0924 September 2026 — Xi lands in Washington on his first US state visit in 11 years; on the summit's eve, Greer expects no extension this week of the truce ending 10 November1
  1. 124/09 · Xi lands in Washington on his first US state visit in 11 years; on the summit's eve, Greer expects no extension this week of the truce ending 10 November

Sources

  1. PBS News — Xi kicks off state visit to Washington with a rare planeside welcome from Trump
  2. Seoul Economic Daily — Xi arrives in US as Trump and Melania greet him at air base
  3. Seoul Economic Daily — B-2 flyover marks Xi state visit as tariff truce talks stall
  4. NBC News — Trump-Xi summit: leaders meet amid tensions over Taiwan, trade and AI
  5. WTOP (AP) — Taiwan is watching closely as Xi and Trump meet and hopes US will keep up its arms sales
  6. Taipei Times — Xi expected to press US on arms sales