MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints28 September 2026, Monday
Yanbu exports resume, but war risk insurance stays high
Saudi Arabia resumed crude shipments from Yanbu via the East-West pipeline on 28 September, ending a 17-day halt. War risk insurance for Saudi-linked tankers loading at Yanbu, however, has tripled since early July.
According to an Investing.com report dated 28 September, 15:04 (GMT+3), Saudi Arabia resumed crude shipments from Yanbu. The report was based on Bloomberg, citing a source with direct knowledge. The 17-day halt had left some European buyers with zero allocations in their October contracts. Before this period, the line, also known as Petroline, carried about 4 million barrels a day, or roughly 4% of global supply. Drone attacks on 11 September, which Riyadh blamed on militias in Iraq, hit 3 pumping stations. A return to full capacity could take 6–8 weeks.
The recovery has not brought costs down. According to an OilPrice.com analysis on 25 September, war risk insurance for Saudi-linked tankers loading at Yanbu rose from below 1% of hull value in early July to about 3%. According to the same analysis, the premium reaches 7% at southern Saudi ports and 6–9% in Hormuz. Daily transits through Bab el-Mandeb fell from a normal level of about 80 ships to around 30. According to Windward, Saudi crude exports via Hormuz rose to about 3.6 million barrels a day in September, from about 0.9 million in August.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The resumption of loadings at Yanbu is positive for physical supply, but insurance premiums holding in a 3–9% band show that risk is still being priced. In September, Saudi exports gained flexibility by splitting between Hormuz and Yanbu. Because the line cannot return to full capacity for 6–8 weeks, the Red Sea outlet remains vulnerable to a new attack.
Likely effects
- Freight and insuranceNegative1–6 months
Premiums of 3% at Yanbu and up to 7% at southern Saudi ports keep the per-barrel cost of Red Sea shipments high despite the recovery.
- European refinersPositiveWeeks
For European buyers who faced zero October allocations, Yanbu's return could bring relief on November loadings.
- Saudi export flexibilityPositiveWeeks
A near fourfold rise in exports via Hormuz in September shows Riyadh can shift cargoes between its two outlets.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Gradual recovery55%
Loadings continue and the line raises throughput within weeks; insurance premiums stay high but stable.
Watch: Weekly number of tanker departures from Yanbu
- 2New attack30%
Houthi or Iraq-based drones target the line or the port again, and loadings stop once more.
Watch: Statements claiming attacks on pumping stations or Yanbu
- 3Premium declines15%
Several weeks pass without attacks in the Red Sea, and the Yanbu premium falls back towards July's sub-1% level.
Watch: Daily Bab el-Mandeb transits approaching 80
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Yanbu export halt▼ 17 days
- Yanbu war risk premium▲ About 3%
- Bab el-Mandeb daily transits▼ About 30
Historical context
Bab el-Mandeb transits, last 6 months
- 110/09 · Houthis seize the port of Mocha and the Perim and Hanish islands in the Bab el-Mandeb
- 221/09 · Houthis announce 2 operations against Riyadh and Yanbu, and Trump halts the Yemen strike despite bombs already loaded
- 322/09 · Up to 169 killed in 3 days over Yemen's Kahbub heights; casualty figures from the parties and the WHO do not match
- 424/09 · 10 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 23 September, 9 of them inbound to the Gulf; preliminary data for 22 September revised from 3 to 7 ships
- 524/09 · Tracked Hormuz transits fell to 9 on 24 September, 8 of them outbound; 23 September revised from 10 to 14, while The National gave 13 for the same day