From Jeddah, US–China rivalry over African minerals opens a door for Gulf capital

Summary

In a commentary published by the Gulf Research Center on 15 October, Michael William Wilson argues that competition for Africa's critical minerals has entered a new phase. By his account, China processes roughly 70% of critical minerals and produces 80% of lithium-ion batteries. It has invested more than 24 billion dollars in its African mining strategy since 2000. Washington, for its part, has signed more than 160 deals worth 40 billion dollars since January 2025. In February 2026 it set up Project Vault, a 12-billion-dollar strategic minerals reserve.

Wilson lists the US moves project by project. A 1.8-billion-dollar consortium of the DFC, Orion Resources and Abu Dhabi's ADQ fund is buying 40% of Glencore's Mutanda and Kamoto copper operations in DR Congo. Gécamines has pledged up to 500,000 tonnes of copper to US buyers through Mercuria. The DFC's commitment to the Lobito corridor stands at around 800 million dollars. Haulage from Kolwezi to Dar es Salaam takes 35 days; once the line is complete, the run to Lobito will take 11. China has answered by committing about 1.4 billion dollars to rebuild the TAZARA railway under a 30-year concession.

The author's central thesis concerns the Gulf's place in all this. The Qatar Investment Authority has put 500 million dollars into Ivanhoe Mines and 180 million dollars into TechMet. Saudi Arabia plans to invest up to 15 billion dollars in global mining. In Wilson's view, Gulf states can become strategic partners in these supply chains without competing head-on with Washington or Beijing. African governments, too, can exploit the rivalry to bargain for infrastructure, power and processing capacity. Zimbabwe, which suspended exports of raw lithium concentrate in 2026, is his example.