"The Alliance for Survival": Eritrea's proxy coalition as seen from Addis Ababa

Summary

In a piece published on 23 September, the day Tigrayan forces took Mekelle airport, international law and foreign affairs specialist Amanuel Tadesse reads the Ethiopian People's Forces Alliance for Survival, declared on 20 September, as a proxy coalition assembled by Eritrea. According to the author, the alliance comprises seven organisations: the TPLF, the Oromo Liberation Army, the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, and the Benishangul and Gumuz movements. Tadesse regards it as the product of Eritrea's doctrine of expanding its sphere of influence through cross-border militarisation, buffer zones and non-state actors, in other words "transnational power projection".

As evidence, the author points to secret consultations he says were held in Asmara in August 2026 with TPLF Politburo Chairman Debretsion Gebremichael, a coordination meeting allegedly held in Gulo Mekeda between the TPLF and Eritrean military officials after the 2 August Shererina incident, and a "Transitional Government Roadmap" he claims Eritrea drafted. His recommendations: close intelligence monitoring of Eritrean activities, exploiting ideological rifts within the alliance to encourage fighters to switch sides, making evidence of the secret meetings public, and international documentation of Eritrean interference. The key claims rest on anonymous sources and sources attributed to Ethiopian officials; Eritrea's response is not included.