New Delhi sees a stronger Taliban still held back by isolation

Summary

In a brief dated 6 October 2026 for MP-IDSA, which is funded by India's defence ministry, Priyanka Singh assesses five years of Taliban rule. Singh argues that the Taliban have consolidated power but that international isolation remains their biggest obstacle. Russia became the first country to grant them full diplomatic recognition and signed a military agreement in May 2026, while China, Pakistan and India have not formalised ties. The author contends that the Taliban have benefited as the Ukraine war and the US–Israel–Iran conflict pulled the world's attention elsewhere.

The sharpest section of the brief concerns the Pakistan front. Singh recounts that Pakistan struck suspected TTP positions in Jalalabad, Khost, Kabul and Paktika in October 2025, and that the conflict turned into an open border war in February 2026. In an air strike on 20 September 2026, 28 people were killed according to Islamabad, while the Taliban said three civilians died. In the author's view, the Taliban keep backing the TTP despite their leader Haibatullah's warning against escalation, and Pakistan is retaliating by cutting trade and deporting Afghan refugees.

On the economy and society, the brief notes that women's labour-force participation fell from 18.3% in 2019 to 5.1% in 2026. The April 2022 poppy ban cut cultivation by 95% and wiped out about $1bn of annual income, and OCHA says 21.9 million people, or 45% of the population, need aid. The brief records that India hosted Taliban foreign minister Muttaqi in October 2025 and now refers to Afghanistan as an 'extended neighbour'. Singh concludes that the US and the international community need to rethink their approach to the Taliban.