
IV Macro Policy & Sovereign DebtSub-Saharan Africa
South African scholar says US debt pulls G20 away from Global South
- Institution
- Institute for Global Dialogue (UNISA)
- Author
- Ashraf Patel
- Country · language
- South Africa · English
- Affiliation
- University-affiliated institute (UNISA)
Summary
Ashraf Patel is a senior research fellow at the Institute for Global Dialogue, part of the University of South Africa (UNISA). In an article published on 24 September 2026, he criticises the G20 meeting hosted by the US in Asheville, North Carolina. In the author's view, the meeting, run under US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, put US interests first and left the Global South's agenda out. Patel notes that US public debt has passed 40 trillion dollars. By his own calculation, that amounts to about 300,000 dollars of debt for every US household outside the richest 1%. In his view, this debt burden is passed on to the rest of the world through the dollar.
The author argues that the communiqué made no mention of climate change, climate finance, the Nepal floods in which thousands died or went missing, or the ongoing wars. He also notes that initiatives left over from South Africa's 2025 presidency, such as the inequality panel and the financing panel, went unmentioned. He reads South Africa's exclusion from the 2026 G20 meetings as an erasure of the country's development agenda. He adds, however, that it may also give Pretoria an opportunity to turn towards the Global South. Patel's central thesis is that US economic nationalism is pushing its own Global South partners towards BRICS, where trade in local currencies and moves away from the dollar are accelerating.
Blind spot
What the West misses: in the West, the US 2026 G20 term is presented as a streamlining of the agenda. This article shows that South Africa's exclusion is eroding the G20's legitimacy in Africa and accelerating the turn towards BRICS. Weakness: the 300,000 dollars per household figure is the author's own calculation. The article calls the gathering a foreign ministers' meeting yet says the Treasury Secretary ran it; this characterisation could not be verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The article shows that the US G20 presidency is being experienced in Africa as exclusion. The most likely direction is for South Africa to prioritise BRICS and African platforms over the G20. However, the claim that trade in local currencies is growing rapidly is not backed by figures in the article. The debate over 40 trillion dollars of debt is being used in the South as a new justification for criticising dollar hegemony.
Likely effects
- G20 legitimacyNegative1–6 months
South Africa's exclusion from the 2026 meetings weakens Africa's willingness to see the G20 as a forum it can use for its own agenda.
- BRICS and local-currency tradeUncertain6 months+
The US narrowing of the agenda gives Global South countries a political rationale to champion local-currency trade within BRICS.
- Türkiye's G20 positionUncertain1–6 months
A G20 narrowed to US priorities increases the need for Türkiye, a G20 member in contact with BRICS, to balance between the two platforms.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Pretoria leans towards BRICS55%
South Africa uses its exclusion to expand the Global South agenda on BRICS and African Union platforms.
Watch: New financing or payment proposals from South Africa at BRICS meetings
- 2Limited return to the G2030%
When the presidency changes hands, South Africa returns to G20 work and tensions ease.
Watch: Meeting calendar and invitation list of the 2027 G20 presidency
- 3Open rupture15%
African countries scale back participation in G20 processes, and the forum loses influence in the Global South.
Watch: The African Union's level of participation in G20 meetings
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Original publication: igd.org.za · 29 September 2026
This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.