III Kinetic Conflicts & DefenceSub-Saharan Africa
A Sudan appeal from Addis Ababa: UN General Assembly mediation must become a concrete 90-day action plan
- Institution
- Amani Africa (Ideas Indaba)
- Author
- Abdul Mohammed
- Country · language
- Ethiopia · English
- Affiliation
- Independent policy centre (Addis Ababa)
Summary
In a guest piece published on 23 September on Ideas Indaba, the opinion platform of Addis Ababa-based Amani Africa, Abdul Mohammed argues that Sudan was neglected during UN General Assembly week, yet the war is unusually amenable to resolution compared with other crises in the region. The author notes that, according to the World Food Programme, roughly 20 million people faced acute hunger as of 14 September, that the programme's Sudan funding fell from 645 million dollars the previous year to 206 million dollars this year, that current operations face a 300 million dollar gap and that recipients receive only half rations. He also recalls the IOM's warning that the humanitarian system could collapse within weeks.
Mohammed proposes that the meeting of the Quad (United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE) and the Quintet (African Union, IGAD, UN, EU, Arab League) planned for 24 September turn consultation into strategy: a shared goal built on a single, sovereign Sudan and the premise that there is no military solution; an urgent humanitarian rescue and de-escalation package protecting population centres and aid corridors; and an external restraint agreement blocking the supply of weapons and drones. Under the division of labour, the Quad should lead on humanitarian and military matters and the Quintet on the civilian political process; a 90-day plan running to December should sit within a six-month horizon, with an interim review on day 30. Otherwise, the author says, Sudan will be partitioned in practice not by a political decision but by a protracted war.
Blind spot
What the West misses: while the West mostly reads Sudan as a humanitarian catastrophe and an appeal for aid, this African reading defines the problem as fragmentation among mediators and arms supplies from external actors, and calls for a split of ownership and timelines between the Quad and the Quintet. The weakness of this reading: the piece does not explain why the two warring parties would comply with the plan, and it does not name the external states supplying weapons and drones.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The piece's figures show a humanitarian system at breaking point: World Food Programme funding fell from 645 million to 206 million dollars in a year, and close to 20 million people face acute hunger. The most likely direction is for the Quad–Quintet process to produce a joint statement and a call for a humanitarian truce without reaching a binding mechanism that halts arms supplies; in that case frontline movements will continue to set diplomacy's timetable.
Likely effects
- Humanitarian aid capacityNegativeWeeks
If the 300 million dollar funding gap and half rations persist, the IOM's warning that the system could collapse within weeks risks coming true; hunger-driven displacement spreads to neighbouring countries.
- Red Sea and Horn of Africa securityNegative6 months+
A de facto partition of Sudan through protracted war widens the arena of competition among external actors along the Red Sea coast and in the Horn of Africa.
- Gulf diplomacyUncertain1–6 months
The role of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both members of the Quad, is the main variable that will directly determine the credibility of any external restraint agreement.
- Türkiye's Africa policyUncertain1–6 months
For Türkiye's humanitarian and diplomatic presence in Sudan and the Horn of Africa, the arrangement of aid corridors and mediation will define the areas where Ankara can contribute.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Statement, no mechanism55%
The Quad–Quintet meeting produces shared principles and a humanitarian appeal, but no binding arrangement limiting arms supplies is set up; the fighting continues.
Watch: The joint text issued after the Quad–Quintet meeting and World Food Programme statements on Sudan funding
- 2Limited humanitarian truce30%
Local ceasefires are secured for certain population centres and aid corridors, and the first phase of the 90-day plan is partly implemented.
Watch: A UN or African Union announcement on an aid corridor and a local ceasefire
- 3Accelerating de facto partition15%
Diplomacy is pushed behind new offensives, and separate governing structures become entrenched in Darfur and Kordofan.
Watch: A rival administration declared in Darfur or Kordofan and decisions to suspend operations in the humanitarian system
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Original publication: amaniafrica-et.org · 23 September 2026
This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.