Nueva Sociedad finds Ethiopia's quest for the sea exists only on paper

Writing in the Latin American journal Nueva Sociedad on 19 October, Héctor Barros and Federico Muiña describe how Ethiopia's search for access to the sea has grown into a regional crisis. On 1 January 2024 Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland's leader Muse Bihi Abdi signed a memorandum under which Ethiopia was to lease about 20 kilometres of coastline for 50 years for its navy. According to the authors, the full text was never published and the lease never took effect. Somalia treated the deal as a breach of its sovereignty. Türkiye mediated in Ankara in December 2024, where the parties agreed on respect for Somali sovereignty and a formula for commercial access, but the port question was left unresolved.

The authors argue that the crisis has widened through the Nile and the Red Sea. Egypt, which draws more than 90% of its water from the Nile, opposes the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam inaugurated in September 2025, and signed a military cooperation agreement with Somalia in August 2024. In December 2025 Israel became the first UN member to recognise Somaliland; the African Union rejected the recognition. According to the World Bank, more than 95% of Ethiopia's foreign trade by volume passes through Djibouti, and the country has a population of around 140 million.

The analysis also ties the renewed fighting in Tigray and Afar in September 2026 into this picture. Federal forces took Alamata and entered Mekele on 3 October, while the road to Djibouti stayed open. Eritrea cut diplomatic ties on 1 October. Ethiopia told the UN Security Council that Eritrean troops had advanced up to 60 kilometres into Tigray, which Asmara denied. Federal forces reached Zalambessa on the border on 13 October. As of 14 October, the authors note, neither government had declared war, and the port deal will remain on paper until the question of who has authority to sign it is settled.