US force pushes the Russia–Iran partnership towards defence, Moscow and Tehran argue

Summary

The piece RIAC published on 12 October is co-written by two academics, one in Moscow and one in Tehran: Igor Matveev of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and Qasem Osuli Odlu of Allameh Tabataba'i University. Their argument is that US use of force and Western sanctions are pushing the two countries into military, political and economic interdependence. The authors take as their starting point Trump's remark at the UN General Assembly on 22 September 2026 that he could destroy Iran if there is no deal.

According to the authors, Russia has avoided open military support for Iran during the 8-month war despite the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty the two signed, but the treaty could shift from non-military areas towards defence. The areas of cooperation they propose are advanced weapons, surveillance data and cyber technology. They openly acknowledge that tension around the Strait of Hormuz benefits Russia economically by lifting oil prices and easing sanctions pressure.

Two new blocs stand out in their regional picture: the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, and Israel's proposed Hexagon, which would include India, Greece and Cyprus. In the authors' view the latter pushes Iran towards China and Russia. A new US sanctions plan targeting Iran's banking sector and oil exports, meanwhile, puts the spotlight on non-dollar trade and on the unfinished financing of the North–South Transport Corridor. At the SCO summit in Bishkek on 1 September, Pezeshkian called relations strategic, and both leaders also attended the BRICS summit in New Delhi on 11 September.