VI Energy Politics & Supply SecurityTürkiye and Its Neighbourhood
SETA says Türkiye arrives at COP31 with renewables and zero waste
- Institution
- SETA (Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research)
- Author
- Harun Türker Kara
- Country · language
- Türkiye · Turkish
- Affiliation
- Government-aligned think tank
Summary
In an analysis published on 9 November, SETA researcher Harun Türker Kara reads the agenda of COP31, meeting in Antalya on 9–20 November 2026, through Türkiye's environmental data. He notes that Türkiye's primary energy intensity, the energy used per thousand dollars of output, fell from 0.192 tonnes of oil equivalent in 2000 to 0.125 in 2024. Kara reads this as a sign that economic growth has begun to decouple from energy demand.
The analysis highlights two areas of success. At the start of 2026, renewables accounted for 62.5% of total installed capacity. The Zero Waste Project, launched in 2017, roughly tripled the waste recovery rate. On the other hand, total greenhouse gas emissions stood at 584.5 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2024, and petroleum products still hold the largest share of final energy consumption, at 42%.
Kara's central thesis is that Türkiye has experience worth sharing in the clean energy transition and zero waste. In his view, the success of the implementation summit approach Türkiye champions as host depends on scaling these gains up in size, scope and depth. He also lists green industrialisation, resilient cities and food security among the agenda items, without giving figures for them.
Blind spot
The analysis highlights renewables' share of installed capacity but not their share of actual generation; the gap between the two depends on capacity utilisation. The 584.5 million tonnes of emissions are not compared with a trend or a target. The 42% share of petroleum products in final consumption is not linked to the Hormuz crisis's impact on Türkiye's energy bill. The claim that recovery tripled gives neither a base year nor a source.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The SETA paper builds the host's COP31 narrative with numbers: 62.5% renewable installed capacity and falling energy intensity. Yet the same data reveal the constraint. Petroleum products still make up 42% of final consumption, and the 2026 Gulf crisis has inflated the bill for that share. The summit's concrete output for Türkiye will probably lie in bargaining over finance and the EU carbon border mechanism; a new emissions pledge is less likely.
Likely effects
- Türkiye's energy billNegative1–6 months
A 42% share of petroleum products in final consumption keeps weighing on the trade deficit regardless of renewable capacity, with January Brent closing at $94.62 on 4 November and $92.63 on 11 November.
- Climate financePositive1–6 months
Hosting the summit, together with 62.5% renewable capacity, could give Türkiye visibility in bargaining for transition finance from multilateral development banks; the analysis does not quantify this channel.
- Exporting industryNegative6 months+
Emissions of 584.5 million tonnes keep cost pressure on export items such as steel and cement under the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Summit closes on implementation themes60%
COP31 ends with zero waste and clean energy initiatives, and Türkiye announces no new emissions target.
Watch: The 20 November closing text and whether Türkiye updates its nationally determined contribution
- 2A finance package emerges25%
A multilateral financing commitment for renewable and grid investment in Türkiye is announced at the summit.
Watch: A Türkiye-specific financing announcement from the World Bank, EBRD or EIB during COP31
- 3The Gulf crisis takes over the agenda15%
The Hormuz and energy security debate overshadows the transition agenda, and the summit ends with a thin joint text.
Watch: Weaker language on transitioning away from fossil fuels in the closing text than in previous COP texts
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Original publication: setav.org · 12 November 2026
This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.