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VI Energy Politics & Supply SecuritySouth Asia

Kathmandu Post urges Nepal to revive the Budhigandaki dam and stay committed

Cochin Port, Vallarpadam Island, Kerala, India (2026)Photo: Rangan Datta Wiki / Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0 · resized · Source
Institution
The Kathmandu Post (editorial)
Author
Institutional publication
Country · language
Nepal · English
Affiliation
Independent newspaper

Summary

In its 27 October editorial, The Kathmandu Post recalls that the 1,200 MW Budhigandaki, Nepal's largest reservoir hydropower project, was declared a 'national pride project' in fiscal 2012-13. It was due for completion in 2026-27, yet construction has still not begun. According to the paper, the Dahal government awarded the work to China Gezhouba Group without tender in May 2017. The Deuba government cancelled the deal 6 months later, and the Oli government handed it back to the same company in September 2018. In 2022 the state decided to build the project itself. Last year's budget proposed a public-private partnership, and this year Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle announced that a dedicated authority would be set up.

The editorial puts the base cost estimate at 374 billion Nepali rupees, approaching 406 billion with interest during construction. Some 42.65 billion rupees have already been paid in compensation for land, buildings and crops. More than 8,000 households will be affected, 3,560 of which will be fully submerged. The paper sees the core rationale in seasonal imbalance. Apart from Kulekhani, Nepal's run-of-river plants overproduce in the monsoon and underproduce in the dry winter, forcing Nepal to buy electricity from India. The editorial calls for the financing model to be settled, a realistic timetable to be published and costs to be independently monitored.

Blind spot

The editorial does not choose between financing models or discuss who would provide the 406 billion rupees and at what interest rate. It ignores the geopolitics of a Chinese company being picked and dropped twice, namely how India views large Chinese-financed dams in Nepal. Nor does it put figures on the volume and cost of winter imports.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Budhigandaki's 14-year delay is a problem of policy instability, not engineering: at least 4 different delivery models have been tried and none has reached construction. As costs drift from 374 billion to 406 billion rupees, Nepal keeps importing electricity from India every winter. In the near term, a new authority or model is more likely than ground being broken.

Likely effects

  • Nepal's energy securityNegative6 months+

    Delays to storage capacity keep Nepal dependent on imports from India during the winter months.

  • Regional power tradeUncertain1–6 months

    The gap between Nepal's monsoon surplus and winter deficit keeps two-way electricity trade with India on the bargaining table.

  • Public financesNegative1–6 months

    With 42.65 billion rupees already paid in compensation, every delay adds to the project's interest bill.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    New authority, slow progress60%

    The authority is set up, but uncertainty over financing and the timetable means construction does not begin before 2027.

    Watch: The decree establishing the authority and its first financing agreement

  2. 2
    External finance speeds things up25%

    A development bank or bilateral lender is found and a construction tender is launched.

    Watch: An international tender notice or loan agreement for Budhigandaki

  3. 3
    Another change of model15%

    A change of government or political objections move the project to yet another model, and the process starts over.

    Watch: A new Cabinet decision overturning the March decision

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Original publication: kathmandupost.com · 27 October 2026

This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.