IV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt
Sliding-scale fuel tax (eşel mobil)
A tax mechanism that absorbs part of a rise in world oil prices or the exchange rate by cutting the special consumption tax on fuel.
How it works
Eşel mobil uses tax to cushion swings in fuel prices. When the refinery gate price rises because of international oil prices or the exchange rate, the state lowers the special consumption tax (ÖTV). Part of the increase therefore never reaches the pump.
The latest round began with a Presidential Decree dated 4 March 2026. From 2 March 2026 it allowed ÖTV cuts of up to 75% of any price rise in petrol, diesel and LPG. When prices fell, the tax rose back by the same share, but never above its 2 March level.
A decree dated 3 July 2026 wound the scheme down in stages. The offset fell to 50% until 31 July and to 25% between 1 August and 30 September. When prices fall, the full amount is now recovered as tax. The scheme lapses on 1 October 2026.
The budget pays the bill: an increase hidden at the pump becomes forgone tax revenue. Once the tax on a product returns to its 2 March level, the decree lapses for that product. If the tax base is exhausted, there is no room left to cut, and world price rises pass straight to the pump.
Why it matters here
Eşel mobil is a buffer that delays the pass-through of an oil shock into inflation, and the budget pays for it. Once the buffer is gone, moves in Brent and the lira reach the pump faster and more fully. So when we assess how a Hormuz-driven price spike feeds Türkiye's inflation, we first check whether the buffer is still on.