ME Council: India diversified its suppliers but not its routes

On 3 November the Doha-based Middle East Council on Global Affairs published an unsigned situation assessment of India's exposure to the Gulf. According to the report, India's goods trade with the Gulf came to about 207.8 billion dollars in fiscal 2025-26. That is 17.1% of total trade; one in every five dollars of imports goes to the region. Before the war, about half of India's crude and about 90% of its LPG imports passed through Hormuz.

The council judges India's initial response successful but temporary. The share of crude arriving by routes that bypass Hormuz rose from 55% to 70% within a few weeks; in August Russia became the largest supplier with a share above 40%. The strategic petroleum reserve, however, covers only about 9.5 days of net imports, and there is no strategic gas reserve at all. Attacks on Ras Laffan knocked out about 17% of Qatar's export capacity; repairs could take 3–5 years.

The macroeconomic cost is also quantified. The rupee hit a record low of 93 to the dollar in March, and foreign funds pulled out about 11 billion dollars a month. The RBI cut its 2026-27 growth forecast to 6.7% and projects inflation of 5.0%. About 10 million Indians live in the Gulf, and 1.1 million had returned home by 20 April.

The report sees a persistent grey zone as the most likely path over 6–12 months: limited, escorted transits through Hormuz and selective attacks in Bab el-Mandeb. Its recommendation is to diversify routes before suppliers; Omani ports outside the two straits stand out. It also suggests that India seek a quiet understanding with Riyadh so that the Mecca defence pact signed by Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan on 7 August is not extended to Kashmir.