MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security6 November 2026, Friday
Ankara widens its NAVTEX challenge to a Greek data cable
Greece issued a NAVTEX on 6 November for surveys on the Crete–Cyprus power cable, and Türkiye answered within minutes with counter-notice 1105/26. The same day Ankara also objected to surveys for East to Med, a data cable that will link Saudi Arabia to Greece.
On 6 November the Greek grid operator ADMIE and the Great Sea Interconnector company announced that the French-flagged vessel Abeille Marengo would resume route surveys. According to Greek Reporter, the project costs 1.9 billion euros, with an EU commitment of about 658 million euros. Surveys had been halted since July 2024. Hürriyet Daily News notes that the NAVTEX came three months after France's Meridiam took a majority stake in the project.
Türkiye's counter-NAVTEX 1105/26 was a reply to Greek notice HA15-1411/26. Ankara said part of the survey area lies on the continental shelf it notified to the UN on 18 March 2020, and that it had not given consent. The Foreign Ministry said it had cancelled the Greek and Greek Cypriot notices. Diplomatic sources in Athens said the operation would proceed on the company's schedule.
Ankara issued a second counter-NAVTEX the same day. It targeted the permit the Greek Cypriot administration had granted the vessel Kobi Ruegg for the East to Med Corridor data cable. According to Cyprus Mail, that Greek Cypriot notice takes effect on 19 November. Türkiye argued that it came from an unauthorised station and that the area falls under Turkish NAVTEX responsibility. The dispute has thus widened from one power cable to two subsea infrastructure lines.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
By extending its objection from a power cable to a data cable, Ankara is trying to tie all subsea infrastructure in the Eastern Mediterranean to the continental shelf negotiation. Greek sources see direct interference with the vessel as unlikely. The most likely path is that surveys advance slowly under radio warnings and counter-NAVTEXs, and the project's financing timetable slips.
Likely effects
- GSI timetableNegative1–6 months
Halted since July 2024, the 1.9 billion euro project faces a fresh delay risk for investors and cable makers with every counter-NAVTEX.
- Data cablesNegative1–6 months
The East to Med objection ties route permits for Gulf–Europe data lines to coordination with Türkiye; insurers may tighten risk assessments for survey vessels.
- TürkiyeUncertain1–6 months
With its NAVTEX for a pipeline from Mersin to the TRNC, Ankara is putting its own infrastructure claim on the table and widening the bargaining space.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Surveys under warning55%
Abeille Marengo continues surveying, the Turkish navy shadows it and issues radio warnings, and there is no contact.
Watch: Whether the survey vessel enters the disputed area
- 2Renewed suspension30%
France or Greece keeps the surveys outside the disputed area, or postpones them, to ease tension.
Watch: Schedule announcements from ADMIE and the GSI company
- 3Escalation to naval contact15%
Turkish warships physically block the survey vessel's route.
Watch: New Turkish naval NAVTEX and exercise notices in the area
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- GSI cost▼ €1.9bn
- EU commitment▼ ~€658m