MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt6 November 2026, Friday
Bounced cheques reach 270 billion lira as industry seeks new cheque rules
According to the Banks Association of Türkiye Risk Centre, 257,985 cheques bounced in January–September 2026, and their value rose 50% in a year to 270 billion lira. On 6 November industry associations said a bank's liability of 16,350 lira per cheque leaf was not enough and called for new cheque rules.
According to the Risk Centre's September report, cited by Alomaliye on 16 October, 32,702 drawers wrote bounced cheques over the same period; the number of cheques rose 15% and the number of drawers 20%. The total value of cheques presented to banks grew by only 20%, to 8,566 billion lira, while their number fell 4%. In September bounced cheques made up 3.4% of cheques presented by value and 2.7% by number. Some 32 billion lira of the bounced cheques were later paid.
In a Bloomberg HT report on 6 November, AYSAD chairman Sait Salıcı said payment terms had lengthened markedly. On a single cheque worth 1 million or 10 million lira, he said, the bank pays out only around 16,000 lira. ZÜCDER chairman Burak Önder said the full effect of the contraction in retail had yet to be felt. Şeref Fayat, head of the TOBB Ready-to-Wear Assembly, argued that tight market liquidity was driving up bounced cheques in every sector, but that the existing rules were nonetheless adequate.
The constraint is liquidity, not the law. The CBRT cut its policy rate from 37% to 36% on 22 October, and October annual inflation came in at 29.77%; the backward-looking real rate remains above 6 points. The latest amendment to the Cheque Law took effect on 19 December 2025 and extended to 31 December 2028 the rule voiding presentation of a post-dated cheque before its due date. Criminal penalties were last changed in 2016.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Bounced cheques growing 2.5 times faster than cheques presented shows the cost of tight monetary policy accumulating in the trade receivables chain. The problem lies less in the legal framework than in lengthening payment terms and shrinking cash. The most likely path is that rate cuts continue slowly while September's 3.4% rate stays elevated until the end of the year.
Likely effects
- SME financingNegativeWeeks
An uncollectable cheque makes it harder for the supplier to pay its own debts and pushes small firms towards secured loans or cash-only sales.
- Bank asset qualityNegative1–6 months
The rise in bounced cheques pushes up the non-performing ratio on commercial loans and inflates banks' provisioning costs.
- DisinflationUncertain1–6 months
Tight liquidity restrains domestic demand; the contraction in retail may slow price increases, but corporate profitability pays the bill.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1A high rate becomes entrenched55%
The bounce rate stays in a 3–4% band by value, and no regulatory change arrives before the end of the year.
Watch: The bounce rate in the Risk Centre's October and November cheque reports
- 2Deterioration accelerates25%
The rate exceeds 4%, annual growth in bounced cheque value rises above 50% and restructuring applications pick up again.
Watch: Monthly temporary moratorium rulings and BDDK weekly SME arrears data
- 3Liquidity eases20%
Inflation comes back in line with expectations, the CBRT speeds up cuts and payment terms begin to shorten.
Watch: November inflation and the 10 December MPC decision
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Bounced cheques (9 months)▼ 270bn lira
- Annual rise (value)▼ +50%
- September rate (value)▼ 3.4%