HighIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt5 November 2026, Thursday · 14:30 TRT (UTC+3)
Net reserves excluding swaps hit a seven-month low as foreigners exit bonds
According to CBRT data published on 5 November, net reserves excluding swaps fell 6.5 billion dollars in the week to 30 October to 24.3 billion dollars. In the same week non-residents sold 749 million dollars of Turkish government bonds.
According to data reported by Bloomberg HT at 14:46, gross reserves fell 4.1 billion dollars to 158.1 billion dollars, and net reserves dropped from 42.3 billion to 38 billion dollars. Net reserves excluding swaps, the free buffer left after deducting the CBRT's FX swaps with banks, are at roughly a seven-month low. Paratic gave the same figures at 15:39. Hibya's compilation of 2 November put the previous week's net reserves at 42.87 billion dollars; Bloomberg HT gave 42.3 billion dollars for that week.
The series stood at 39.34 billion dollars in the week of 16 October, implying a two-week loss of about 15 billion dollars. On the portfolio side, foreigners sold 749 million dollars of government bonds in the week to 30 October, the largest weekly sale in seven months, against 163 million dollars the week before. Equity selling was limited to 66.3 million dollars. Residents' FX deposits, adjusted for parity effects, rose 585 million dollars, of which 516 million came from companies.
The sources did not break the decline down by item, and the split between FX and gold reserves could not be verified. Mineral fuel imports rose to 8.3 billion dollars in the same month. The rapid erosion of the buffer shows energy payments, portfolio outflows and exchange-rate management coinciding in the same weeks.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
An erosion of about 15 billion dollars in two weeks shows that the free buffer the CBRT uses to defend its exchange-rate anchor has fallen to 24.3 billion dollars. Foreign bond outflows of 749 million dollars and corporate FX accumulation of 516 million dollars suggest the pressure is not coming only from the energy bill. Talay's reading is that the buffer will be tested in a 20–25-billion-dollar band in November.
Likely effects
- Exchange-rate policyNegativeWeeks
As the buffer narrows, the CBRT has less room to hold the lira's monthly depreciation pace at 1.8%; faster depreciation comes onto the table.
- Lira bondsNegativeWeeks
The largest weekly foreign sale in seven months points to weakening foreign demand for extended-maturity lira yields.
- Rate pathNegative1–6 months
If reserve losses continue, the pace of easing at the 10 December MPC will be set more by the buffer than by inflation.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Slowing erosion50%
Oil stays in a 90–100-dollar band, foreign outflows ease and the buffer holds at 20–25 billion dollars.
Watch: Weekly net reserves excluding swaps at 14:30 on 12 November
- 2Buffer falls below 20 billion35%
Energy payments and bond outflows persist, and the CBRT either speeds up depreciation or postpones a cut.
Watch: Weekly foreign flows into government bonds and the monthly depreciation of the lira against the dollar
- 3Rapid recovery15%
Brent falls durably, foreign inflows return and reserves rebuild.
Watch: Front-month Brent closing below 90 dollars
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Net reserves ex-swaps▼ −$6.5bn
- Gross reserves▼ $158.1bn
- Foreign bond sales▼ $749m