MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt24 September 2026, Thursday

BIST 100 falls 2.74% to 12,888 points on 24 September as the 2-year lira bond yield climbs to 37.09%: Fed and oil pressure hit Turkish assets

The BIST 100 index closed 24 September at 12,888.33 points, down 363.52 points; the banking index fell 3.06% and the holding index 3.87%. The same day the 2-year benchmark bond yield rose from 36.43% to 37.09% and the 10-year yield from 32.52% to 32.64%.

Location: ISTANBUL

According to closing reports by İstanbul Ticaret Gazetesi and CNN Türk dated 24 September, the BIST 100 ended the day down 2.74% at 12,888.33 points, with total trading volume of 110.6 billion lira. The banking index lost 3.06% and the holding index 3.87%, while the steepest decline, 8.85%, was in the leasing and factoring index. The same reports said the dollar/lira rate rose 0.09% to 48.87, the euro/lira stood at 55.72 and Brent crude rose 1.99% to 100.79 dollars.

According to Investing.com data, the 2-year Turkish bond yield rose from 36.43% on 23 September to 37.09% on 24 September, moving above the policy rate held at 37% on 10 September. The 10-year yield rose to 32.64% the same day. Analysts attributed the decline to strong US data keeping expectations of further Fed rate hikes alive, rising oil prices and a lack of diplomatic progress in the Middle East. CBRT data released the same day showed net reserves falling by 6.41 billion dollars.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The sharp repricing of equities and near-term bonds on the same day shows local risk perception adding to the global rate shock. The 2-year yield exceeding the 37% policy rate signals that the market has begun pricing not easing from the CBRT but a tight stance for an extended period, and even further tightening.

Likely effects

BankingNegativeWeeks
The 3.06% loss in the banking index reflects expectations that rising funding costs will weigh on loan growth and margins.
Treasury borrowingNegative1–6 months
The 2-year yield rising to 37.09% indicates that the cost of new fixed-coupon Treasury issuance will be at least 0.09 points above the policy rate.
Foreign flowsNegativeWeeks
A record exchange rate and falling equity prices could accelerate foreign portfolio outflows, deepening reserve losses.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Volatile sideways trading55%
Global rates stabilise, the index fluctuates in the 12,500–13,300 band and the 2-year yield stays within 36–38%.
Watch: US PCE data and Fed speeches
2
Selling pressure deepens30%
The Fed's October hike becomes certain and Brent rises above 105 dollars, accelerating foreign outflows.
Watch: Foreign outflows in weekly securities statistics and CDS exceeding 250 basis points
3
Rapid recovery15%
Diplomatic progress on the Strait of Hormuz pushes oil below 95 dollars and risk appetite returns.
Watch: A concrete Hormuz reopening timetable from the US–Iran talks

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

BIST 100▼ −2.74%
10-year lira yield▲ 32.64%
2-year lira yield▲ +66 basis points
Dollar/lira▲ 48.87

Historical context