MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt28 September 2026, Monday · 15:06 TRT (UTC+3)
CBRT gross reserves fall for a fifth week to 171 billion dollars
Calculations based on CBRT data show total reserves fell by about 3.4 billion dollars in the week of 25 September to 171 billion dollars. The decline extended into a fifth consecutive week, with losses since 21 August of about 17.4 billion dollars.
CNBC-e published a report at 15:06 on 28 September based on Matriks data. It showed gross reserves fell from 174.4 billion dollars in the week of 18 September to 171 billion dollars in the week of 25 September. Dünya newspaper cited the same calculation and put the weekly loss at about 3.4 billion dollars. Reserves stood at 188.4 billion dollars on 21 August, a difference of about 17.4 billion dollars. This is a market calculation; the CBRT's official weekly data will be published on 1 October.
The longer-term picture also points downwards. According to the same sources, reserves hit a record high of 218.2 billion dollars on 30 January 2026 and fell as low as 149.2 billion dollars on 26 June. As of 25 September, the level was about 47.2 billion dollars below the peak. In the CBRT's official data of 24 September, net reserves fell by 6.41 billion dollars to 55.84 billion dollars in the week of 18 September. Net reserves and net reserves excluding swaps for the week of 25 September could not be verified as of the morning of 29 September.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The reserve loss has slowed but not stopped. The weekly decline eased from 4.3 billion dollars in the week of 18 September to about 3.4 billion dollars. The five-week erosion of 17.4 billion dollars shows the CBRT continuing to defend currency stability with reserves. Official data on 1 October will clarify how much of the loss has fed through to net reserves.
Likely effects
- Exchange-rate policyNegative1–6 months
While the currency is being defended with reserves, the CBRT's buffer narrows; if losses accelerate, pressure to return to the interest rate tool will grow.
- Risk premiumNegativeWeeks
Gross reserves standing 47.2 billion dollars below their peak weakens the buffer indicator foreign investors watch when assessing Türkiye's credit risk.
- Data calendarUncertainWeeks
The gap between market calculations and the CBRT's official data will become clear on 1 October; the net reserve figure will show the real constraint.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Slowing erosion55%
Losses continue but the weekly amount stays within 3–4 billion dollars, and net reserves hold above 50 billion dollars.
Watch: Net reserves in the CBRT's weekly reserve data on 1 October
- 2Losses accelerate30%
The fund investigation and oil pressure lift demand for foreign currency, and the weekly loss again exceeds 5 billion dollars.
Watch: Gross reserves falling below 170 billion dollars
- 3Reversal15%
The risk premium eases, foreign currency inflows lift reserves again and the five-week streak is broken.
Watch: A weekly rise in gross reserves and a fall in CDS
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Gross reserves, week of 25 Sep▼ $171 billion
- Weekly change▼ −$3.4 billion
- 5-week loss▼ −$17.4 billion