MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints28 September 2026, Monday
Whole Black Sea becomes a war-risk zone as Türkiye's corridor plan stalls
According to maritime risk firm Ambrey, 45 merchant ships were hit outside the former risk area in the 12 months to 21 September, against none in the previous 12 months. Tamer Kıran, chairman of the İMEAK Chamber of Shipping, said Türkiye's draft for grain-corridor-style safe passage has yet to produce results.
According to Ambrey's assessment of 23 September, the London insurance market's Joint War Committee (JWC) has extended its listed area to the whole Black Sea. The JWC is the body that designates areas where war-risk premiums apply, and the extension excludes only the territorial waters of Türkiye, Romania, Bulgaria and Georgia. The same assessment said attacks have moved offshore to an average of about 58 nautical miles from the coast, including open waters near Türkiye's northern coast. Port attacks rose from 21 to 139 quarter on quarter. Findings of unexploded ordnance rose 491%, from 11 to 65.
According to a Dünya report on 28 September, Ambrey expects conditions to persist for the rest of 2026 and the listed area not to be narrowed in the near term. The same report said attacks have spread from tankers to bulk carriers, general cargo, container and ro-ro ships. Tamer Kıran, chairman of the İMEAK Chamber of Shipping, said no agreement has yet been reached on the joint mechanism to halt attacks set out in Türkiye's draft. Kıran also urged that trainee cadets not be taken on Black Sea voyages. The size of the rise in insurance premiums could not be verified, as neither source gives a figure.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Risk in the Black Sea is no longer confined to specific ports. The shift of attacks to open waters and to seas near Türkiye's coast has changed the insurance map. Unless the parties adopt Türkiye's grain-corridor-style draft, freight and insurance costs will stay high. Ambrey expects the listed area not to narrow before the end of 2026.
Likely effects
- Freight and insuranceNegative1–6 months
Extending the listed area to the whole Black Sea makes a war-risk premium mandatory on every voyage outside Turkish territorial waters.
- Turkish shippingNegativeWeeks
Turkish shipowners and vessels heading into the Black Sea via the Turkish Straits face cost and crew risks from rising attacks in open waters.
- Turkish diplomacyUncertain1–6 months
If agreement is reached, Ankara's safe-passage draft could restore a mediating role for Türkiye.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Attacks continue65%
The listed area is not narrowed before the end of 2026, and attacks continue in open waters and on different ship types.
Watch: New listing announcements from Ambrey and the JWC
- 2Partial mechanism25%
The parties agree on a limited safe-passage arrangement for merchant ships, and premium increases stop.
Watch: Official responses from Moscow and Kyiv to Türkiye's draft
- 3Incident near the Straits10%
An attack close to Turkish territorial waters puts direct pressure on traffic through the Straits and on Türkiye's security posture.
Watch: Report of a ship attack near Turkish territorial waters
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Ships hit outside risk area▲ 45
- Port attacks, quarterly▲ 21 → 139
- Unexploded ordnance finds▲ +491%