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MediumII Cyber Warfare & Critical Infrastructure2 November 2026, Monday

Chinese research ships linger over Taiwan's and Japan's undersea cables

According to an ingeniSPACE analysis reported by Yomiuri, four Chinese research vessels have slowed and stopped since May at points around Taiwan where international undersea cables run. A Taiwanese official said the analysis largely matched the authorities' own findings.

Location: BASHI CHANNEL

The ships traced irregular courses north of Taiwan, along its east coast and in the Bashi Channel to the south. They include the Xiang Yang Hong 22, operated by the Ministry of Natural Resources, and the Tongji, belonging to a university in Shanghai. According to Seoul Economic Daily, 24 undersea cables pass near Taiwan, 14 of them international. The stopping points coincide with lines linking Taiwan to Japan, the US, Singapore and the Philippines.

The same firm has detected ships tied to a Chinese university carrying out similar manoeuvres since 2024 in Japan's exclusive economic zone, east of Hokkaido and off Nagoya. On 9 October Takaichi described the cables as indispensable critical infrastructure, and the government included a cable protection item in its budget request for fiscal 2027. Taiwan has averaged 7–8 cable incidents a year in its coastal waters over the past four years.

The limits of the evidence are clear: it could not be verified that the ships collected cable data. The analysis relies on tracks from the automatic identification system (AIS), the positional broadcast that ships transmit. A deputy minister at Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council said on 2 November that China could make more frequent use of non-military vessels. Hu Xijin, the former editor of Global Times, wrote on Weibo that the marine data could serve defensive purposes.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

China's research vessel activity shows grey-zone pressure around Taiwan extending to undersea infrastructure, though it has not been verified that cable data were collected. Japan's plan to move cable protection from private companies to the state signals that the risk will now be managed through the public budget rather than commercial insurance.

Likely effects

  • Communications infrastructureNegative1–6 months

    Mapping 14 international cables increases the capacity to target Taiwan's external links in a crisis; repair ship capacity remains a bottleneck.

  • Japanese budgetUncertain6 months+

    Cable protection has entered the fiscal 2027 budget request; state-led protection shifts the cost borne by private operators onto the public purse.

  • InsurabilityNegative6 months+

    Because deliberate state action may fall under war exclusions, cable damage risk comes to rest on state guarantees more than on commercial cover.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Grey-zone activity continues60%

    Research ships keep circling Taiwan and Japan; no cable is damaged, but monitoring costs rise.

    Watch: Taiwan Coast Guard notices on research vessels

  2. 2
    A cable incident occurs25%

    A new cable cut or damage is reported around Taiwan ahead of the 28 November elections.

    Watch: Cable incident statements by Taiwan's Ministry of Digital Affairs

  3. 3
    Activity is pulled back15%

    Beijing scales down ship activity ahead of the APEC summit in Shenzhen.

    Watch: Ship tracks ahead of the 18–19 November APEC summit

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Cables near Taiwan▼ 24 (14 intl)
  • Annual cable incidents▼ 7–8

Sources

  1. Taiwan News (Yomiuri) — Four Chinese research vessels probe Taiwan's undersea cables (2 November 2026)
  2. Asia News Network (Yomiuri Shimbun) — Chinese ships suspected of surveying undersea cables near Japan, Philippines (2 November 2026)
  3. Seoul Economic Daily — Chinese Ships Trace Undersea Cables Near Taiwan, Analysts Say (4 November 2026)
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