MediumV Technology Geopolitics & AI19 October 2026, Monday
China's licensing of tunnel boring machines puts Indian projects at risk
China's Ministry of Commerce said on 19 October that tunnel boring machines (TBMs) will need export licences from 18 November. The rule also covers shotcrete machines built for altitudes above 3,000 metres. Unlicensed exports to countries in dispute with China are banned.
According to the state-run Global Times, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have added several items to the dual-use list. They include full-face TBMs and their parts, and walking excavators able to clear obstacles higher than 1.2 metres. Also listed are high-altitude wet shotcrete machines rated above 75 kW and designed for elevations over 3,000 metres. Under the rule, exports to countries and regions in dispute with China require a licence. A ministry spokesperson said the controls protect national security and that compliant applications will be approved.
In India the controls bear directly on the infrastructure timetable. Business Today reports that India depends heavily on imported machinery for underground construction. In September 2025 Philipp Ackermann, Germany's ambassador in New Delhi, said at least 3 Herrenknecht TBMs made in China and bound for India were being held by Chinese customs. PSU Watch lists metro networks, high-speed rail corridors, Himalayan border tunnels and port expansions among the projects at risk. The ministry also set thresholds the same day for dredger pumps and cutter heads.
The timing follows a draft China published on 16 October proposing new restrictions across 14 technology areas. No up-to-date official data showing China's share of India's TBM imports could be found. Which projects will be affected, and to what extent, could not be verified. Herrenknecht had already decided to set up production in India to reduce its reliance on China.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
China is extending its export-control toolkit from semiconductors and rare earths to heavy construction machinery. The 3,000-metre altitude threshold and the rule on countries in dispute point to a design aimed at India, which is building border tunnels in the Himalayas. The most likely path is selective licensing, with India shifting towards European, Japanese and domestic supply while projects slip by months.
Likely effects
- Indian infrastructureNegative1–6 months
Metro, high-speed rail and border tunnel projects face licensing uncertainty over TBM supply; a delay to a single machine can push back an entire project.
- India–China relationsNegative1–6 months
With post-Galwan normalisation still under way, the dual-use rationale shows Beijing continues to use trade as leverage in border bargaining.
- TürkiyePositive6 months+
India's search for non-Chinese machinery and tunnelling contractors could open new business for Turkish contractors with tunnel construction experience.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Selective licences, chronic delays55%
China slows licences case by case and Indian projects slip by months, but imports do not stop altogether.
Watch: Whether the first TBM shipment bound for India after 18 November receives a licence
- 2Rapid supply shift30%
India turns to European and Japanese makers and to Herrenknecht's local production, keeping the impact contained.
Watch: Any investment or incentive announcement for domestic TBM manufacturing capacity in India
- 3Diplomatic easing15%
Bilateral export-control talks yield a general licence or exemption for India.
Watch: India–China talks on export controls or an exemption announcement
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Effective date▼ 18 November
- Altitude threshold▼ 3,000 m+
- TBMs held in 2025▼ at least 3
Sources
- Global Times (state media) — China to impose export controls on tunnel boring machines from Nov 18
- Business Today — China announces export controls on tunnel boring machines. Challenge for India's infra push?
- PSU Watch — China tightens export curbs on TBM raising fresh concerns over India's infrastructure projects