HighI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints5 November 2026, Thursday
October was the war's worst month for ship strikes, and fires continue
According to CNBC, 35 ships were hit in October, the highest monthly count of the war. UKMTO has logged at least 5 incidents since 1 November. On 5 November the Revolutionary Guards said 2 tankers and 1 tug using unauthorised routes had caught fire in separate incidents.
CNBC reported on 5 November that 35 ships were hit in October, the highest monthly count since the war began in February. UKMTO, the British maritime trade unit that records incidents involving merchant ships in the region, has received incident reports from at least 5 vessels since 1 November. On 5 November the Revolutionary Guards said 2 oil tankers and 1 tug using unauthorised routes had caught fire in separate incidents.
According to The National, Iran's navy said on 5 November that a tanker east of Hormuz had struck a mine and caught fire. The navy accused the vessel of moving in breach of the rules in an "unsafe area" and reported 1 fire. As of 5 November the tanker's name and flag could not be verified by an independent source. Nor could it be verified whether the Revolutionary Guards' claim of 2 tankers and the navy's account of 1 tanker describe the same incident.
On the insurance side the bar remains high. Broker data cited by Insurance Business on 14 October put the Gulf war-risk premium at 6–10% of hull value, against 0.25% before the war. In Talay's reading, 35 hits in October show that the incident-free period needed for premiums to ease has not materialised. According to CNBC, Eurasia Group cut the probability of a deal from 20% to 10% and raised the probability of a continued stalemate from 15% to 30%.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Attacks peaked in October and showed no sign of slowing in the first days of November. While futures fall on expectations of post-election diplomacy, the incident frequency that insurers price keeps rising. That divergence delays any fall in the war-risk premium from the 6–10% band and the return of entered tonnage to Hormuz.
Likely effects
- War-risk premiumNegativeWeeks
35 hits a month give underwriters ample reason to hold Gulf premiums in the 6–10% band; without several incident-free weeks no cut is likely.
- Tanker freightNegativeWeeks
The targeting of ships using unauthorised routes keeps freight and crew costs high on voyages out of the Gulf.
- Oil priceUncertain1–6 months
While futures track diplomacy and delivered costs track the attack count, the gap between the two prices stays wide.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Tempo of attacks persists55%
Several incidents a week continue through November, and the war-risk premium stays in the 6–10% band.
Watch: UKMTO's weekly incident count and broker war-risk premium quotes
- 2Escalation30%
The US strikes Iran again, attacks exceed the October count and some insurers stop offering cover.
Watch: Joint War Committee notices and US military statements
- 3Quiet period15%
Diplomatic contacts reduce attacks, two weeks pass without incident and premiums ease for the first time.
Watch: UKMTO reporting no new incident for 14 days
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Ships hit in October▼ 35
- Incidents since 1 November▼ 5+
- Gulf war-risk premium▼ 6–10%