HighI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints3 November 2026, Tuesday

Only three ships transit Hormuz as Iran doubles its blacklist

According to Windward, 3 ships transited Hormuz on 3 November, down from 7 the day before. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority expanded its non-compliant vessel list to 240 on 2 November, adding 72 ships from the state fleets of Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar.

Location: HORMUZ

Windward's AIS and satellite data show 3 ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on 3 November, 1 inbound and 2 outbound. The count on 2 November was 7. Of the 2 outbound ships, one was a product tanker broadcasting AIS and the other a cargo ship with its transponder off. According to data cited by Insurance Business, about 135 ships a day transited the strait before the war.

The Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), the Iranian body that makes transits subject to its approval, raised its list from 125 to 240 vessels on 2 November. Orbital analysis cited by Maritime Executive counts 114 additions; Windward counts 115. Of the 240 listed ships, 118 are crude tankers. Gulf state operators such as Kuwait Oil Tanker Company, Bahri, ADNOC, Nakilat and QatarEnergy account for a combined 72 vessels on the list.

The PGSA said it would subject the 240 listed ships to transit restrictions, fines, detention or seizure. It added that vessels conducting ship-to-ship transfers with any of them would also be listed. According to Windward, 82 of the 115 additions share an owner, operator or manager with a previously listed ship; Windward reads this as the list shifting from individual vessels to whole fleets.

On the insurance side, the door remains narrow. According to Insurance Business, brokers were pricing war premiums at 6–10% of hull value in early October, against 0.25% before the war. As of 4 November it could not be verified whether existing war-risk cover protects a listed ship against seizure by the PGSA.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Recorded transits have fallen to 3–7 ships a day, while Iran's list now reaches beyond individual ships to entire fleets. With Gulf state operators listed with 72 vessels, exports will lean more heavily on dark transits and offshore transfers. If the list extends to the foreign tankers taking over those cargoes, that corridor will narrow too.

Likely effects

Tanker freight and insuranceNegativeWeeks
Because ships trading with listed vessels will also be listed, risk passes to foreign tankers in the transfer chain; war premiums will not fall from the 6–10% band.
Gulf export measurementUncertain1–6 months
As AIS counts understate flows, export data will rely on satellite and cargo tracking, and monthly figures will be open to revision.
Türkiye energy billNegative1–6 months
While insurance costs on Gulf-origin deliveries stay high, any fall in Brent will reach the import bill only with a lag.

Possibilities, ranked

1
List grows, counts stay low55%
The PGSA widens the list fleet by fleet after new attacks; recorded transits stay below 10 a day.
Watch: The PGSA's next list update and Windward's daily transit count
2
Deal suspends the list30%
A US–Iran interim deal eases the blockade and the list, and recorded tonnage returns slowly.
Watch: Official statements on the blockade and the PGSA list
3
A listed ship is seized15%
The PGSA seizes a listed ship or stops a tanker conducting transfers, and the dark corridor narrows.
Watch: UKMTO and JMIC detention notices

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Hormuz transits (3 Nov)▼ 3 ships
PGSA blacklist▼ 240 ships
State-owned ships listed▼ 72

Historical context