MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence13 September 2026, Sunday

Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia struck off Oman, two crew members missing

The Revolutionary Guards say the tanker hit a mine, while US Central Command says it was attacked by Iran.

According to gCaptain, the Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia, crewed by Indian sailors, was struck off Oman on 13 September; 23 people were rescued and two crew members are missing. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said the vessel had hit a mine, while US Central Command stated that the tanker had been attacked by Iran twice, by a missile in August and by an unmanned aerial vehicle over the weekend.

According to a GlobalSecurity compilation, another vessel was struck on 14 September but sustained no damage; the maritime information centre JMIC recorded three attacks in 72 hours and raised the threat level to critical, the highest level. As sources conflict over who was responsible, both accounts are reported together. The attacks directly affect insurance premiums for transits through the strait and shipowners' routing decisions.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

JMIC recording three attacks in 72 hours and raising the threat level to its highest shows the Gulf of Oman–Hormuz route turning from isolated incidents into a systematic risk zone. Whether the cause was a mine or an Iranian attack remains disputed, but the commercial result is the same: insurance premiums and routing costs are rising. The most likely course is for attacks to continue intermittently while maritime trade keeps operating with a high risk premium.

Likely effects

Marine insurance and freightNegativeWeeks
The threat level rising to severe increases war-risk premiums and shipowners' rerouting costs; tanker and container services transiting the region are directly affected.
Oil pricesNegativeWeeks
The rising risk to Hormuz transits adds a geopolitical risk premium to oil prices; even without an actual supply cut, buyers are pricing delivery uncertainty.
Türkiye energy billNegative1–6 months
For import-dependent Türkiye, higher oil and freight costs enlarge the import bill and current account deficit, and complicate the fight against inflation through fuel prices.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Intermittent attacks, high risk premium60%
Attacks continue at irregular intervals; transits go on but the threat level stays severe and insurance costs do not come down.
Watch: JMIC keeping the threat level at severe and new attack reports each week
2
Escalation and a marked fall in transits25%
As attacks become more frequent or casualties rise, shipowners avoid the region; transit numbers fall markedly and oil and freight prices rise sharply.
Watch: A marked drop in Hormuz transit counts and major shipowners suspending voyages to the region
3
De-escalation15%
Through diplomatic contacts or military deterrence, attacks subside; JMIC lowers the threat level and risk premiums recede gradually.
Watch: No new attacks recorded for several weeks and JMIC lowering the threat level

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Hormuz transits▼ risk rising

Historical context