MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints27 September 2026, Sunday
Türkiye's sliding-scale fuel tax ends as a petrol tax rise looms
The sliding-scale system, which adjusts fuel tax in line with oil prices, ends completely on 1 October 2026. Industry estimates suggest that, unless current rules change, the special consumption tax and VAT could add about 12.48 lira to a litre of petrol.
The sliding-scale system (eşel mobil) keeps pump prices stable by cutting the Special Consumption Tax (ÖTV, a fixed-amount levy on products such as fuel) when oil prices rise. Gzt reported on 27 September that the system ends completely on 1 October, with an estimated increase of about 12.48 lira for petrol. According to the same report, the phased ÖTV on diesel will rise from 3 lira per litre in September to 6 lira on 1 October. The report also notes that a new decision issued before 1 October could change the amount.
Sanayi Gazetesi data for 28 September put petrol at 80.40 lira, diesel at 93.50 lira and LPG at 34.99 lira on Istanbul's European side. In Ankara, petrol stands at 81.40 lira and diesel at 94.60 lira. Diesel was cut by about 5.57 lira on 24 September and raised by about 2.55 lira on 25 September. The 12.48 lira increase is an industry estimate rather than an official decision, and the exact amount could not be verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The end of the sliding-scale system on 1 October means high oil prices will pass through to the pump without a tax buffer. Adding 12.48 lira to a petrol price of 80.40 lira would feed directly into October inflation. The government could also phase in the increase with a last-minute measure; the exact amount will become clear with the decision taken before 1 October.
Likely effects
- InflationNegativeWeeks
Simultaneous tax increases on petrol and diesel would push up the transport component of October CPI and strain the disinflation target.
- Budget balancePositive1–6 months
Restoring ÖTV to its former level recovers fuel tax revenue lost under the sliding-scale system and eases the budget deficit.
- Households and logisticsNegativeWeeks
The rise in diesel ÖTV from 3 to 6 lira lifts transport costs, and the increase may feed through to food prices with a lag.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Phased transition50%
The government issues a decision splitting the increase into several steps, so the full 12.48 lira does not reach the pump on 1 October.
Watch: ÖTV decision in the Official Gazette on 30 September–1 October
- 2Full pass-through35%
The system ends as calculated, and the 12.48 lira increase reaches the pump in one go on 1 October.
Watch: Pump prices on 1 October and EPDK data
- 3Extension15%
The sliding-scale system is extended for a new period, citing high oil prices.
Watch: Statement from the Ministry of Treasury and Finance
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Possible petrol ÖTV+VAT effect▲ +12.48 lira/l
- Phased diesel ÖTV▲ 3 → 6 lira/l
- Petrol, Istanbul European side▲ 80.40 lira