MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security8 October 2026, Thursday
India's Russian oil purchases fall to their lowest since 2022
Tanker tracking data show Russian crude shipments to India averaged 310,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to 4 October. That is the lowest four-week level since March 2022, driven more by pricier Urals than by sanctions.
Data cited by OilPrice and United24 on 8 October, based on Bloomberg, show Russian crude shipments to India fell to an average of 310,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to 4 October. That is the lowest four-week level since March 2022, when Indian buyers turned to discounted Russian oil. According to Kpler, Russia's share of India's crude imports fell from a peak of 56% in July to about 35% in September.
Price is the deciding factor. Urals cargoes loading at Baltic ports are being offered at a premium of more than 10 dollars a barrel to Dated Brent, the benchmark for physical North Sea crude. That premium wipes out the discount that drew Indian buyers. Refiners are also cutting Urals purchases for November delivery, while Chinese demand for Russian oil is stiffening competition. A US law authorising tariffs of up to 100% on major buyers of Russian energy adds a further reason for caution.
The Gulf is filling the gap. Kpler data published by ThePrint on 29 September show Gulf crude returned to pre-conflict levels of 2.7–3 million barrels a day in September. Iraq shipped about 575,000 barrels a day, Saudi Arabia 566,000, the UAE 480,000 and Kuwait 331,000. Total imports rose to about 5.3 million barrels a day, up 600,000 on August. Russian oil, at 1.74 million barrels a day in September, was at its lowest since April.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
India's cut in Russian oil is a pricing decision more than a political break; Urals selling at a premium of over 10 dollars to Brent has erased the discount. The recovery in Hormuz flows has made the Gulf the main supplier again. The likeliest path is a low Russian share for several months. If the discount returns, purchases could rebound quickly, since refiners have reduced Russian oil rather than abandoned it.
Likely effects
- Russian oil salesUncertain1–6 months
Indian demand down to 310,000 barrels a day makes Russian crude more dependent on Chinese buyers; competition supports prices today but narrows the buyer base.
- Gulf producersPositiveWeeks
Iraq's shipments to India rising more than 250% on August is a market share gain that depends on Hormuz staying open.
- US tariff riskPositive1–6 months
Russia's share falling from 56% to 35% weakens the case for applying the authority to impose tariffs of up to 100% on India.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Low Russian share persists50%
The Urals premium holds and Russia's share stays at or below about 35%.
Watch: Kpler's October data on India's crude imports
- 2Recovery on a discount30%
Chinese demand weakens, Urals slips back below Brent and Indian refiners increase December loadings.
Watch: Baltic Urals cargoes flipping from a premium to a discount against Dated Brent
- 3Return on a Hormuz shock20%
Gulf flows are cut again and refiners turn back to Russian oil despite the cost.
Watch: A renewed sharp fall in daily tanker transits through Hormuz
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Russian shipments (4 weeks)▼ 310k b/d
- Russian share (Sept)▼ ≈35%
- Urals premium to Brent▲ over $10
- Gulf supply (Sept)▲ 2.7–3m b/d