MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints22 September 2026, Tuesday
Iraq suspends Iranian flights at Baghdad after US secondary sanctions threat; Transport Ministry denies the report
According to sources speaking to Reuters, the Iraqi government ordered the civil aviation authority to suspend Iranian flights at Baghdad airport from midnight on 23 September and is discussing diverting services to Najaf. A spokesman for Iraq's Transport Ministry, however, said flights were continuing as planned.
According to a Reuters report carried by GV Wire, after the US threatened to sanction any airport serving Iranian carriers, Iraq instructed its civil aviation authority to halt Iranian flights at Baghdad airport from midnight on Wednesday 23 September 2026. The government is discussing redirecting Iranian services to Najaf airport instead of Baghdad. The trigger was a statement by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on CNBC on 21 September: those providing fuel, landing services or tickets to Iranian aircraft will be cut off from the dollar system.
The official picture is contradictory. According to Iraqi News, government sources said the suspension would begin on Tuesday, while Transport Ministry spokesman Hussein Ahmed said flights between Iran and Iraq were continuing as planned and there was no official instruction to halt them. Iranian state media outlet Tasnim reported that flights from Tehran to Baghdad and Muscat had been cancelled from Wednesday, while Istanbul flights continued. Kurdistan24 wrote that Baghdad had halted Iranian flights and that Najaf was the alternative destination.
Iraq is one of Iran's most important regional markets, especially for religious tourism to Najaf and Karbala; a halt to flights affects thousands of pilgrims every year. Among other carriers in the region, Turkish Airlines, AJet and Pegasus have suspended Iran flights until March 2027. The US Treasury added 27 Iranian airlines to its sanctions list on 8 September.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
As the neighbour most dependent on Iran, Iraq is the real test of secondary sanctions: while government sources signal compliance, the Transport Ministry's denial shows Baghdad trying to buy time between the two sides. The option of diverting to Najaf suggests partial compliance, rather than full closure, is the most likely path.
Likely effects
- Iraq–Iran religious tourismNegativeWeeks
A halt to Baghdad flights pushes pilgrims travelling to Najaf and Karbala onto the roads or a single airport, raising cost and travel time.
- Regional effectiveness of sanctionsUncertain1–6 months
Iraqi compliance would close Iranian aviation's second major regional outlet after Türkiye; a search for exemptions, however, would show the sanctions can be circumvented.
- Türkiye's transit roleUncertain1–6 months
The joint closure of Iraq and Türkiye could accelerate Iran's shift towards land border crossings and road transit through Türkiye.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Partial compliance via Najaf50%
Baghdad closes, limited Iranian services are diverted to Najaf, and temporary leniency is sought from Washington.
Watch: Whether Iranian flights are added to the schedule at Najaf airport
- 2Full suspension35%
Iraq formally halts Iranian flights at all airports and announces it through a written instruction.
Watch: An official circular from the Iraqi Civil Aviation Authority
- 3Flights continue15%
The ministry's denial holds, Baghdad flights continue and the US adds service providers in Iraq to the sanctions list.
Watch: A US Treasury sanctions announcement targeting Iraqi airport or fuel companies
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Iranian airlines on sanctions list▼ 27