MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security5 November 2026, Thursday
Iran turns to Moscow for winter gas, but Russian volumes fall short
Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei met Putin in Moscow on 5 November. According to the National Iranian Gas Company, the shortfall at the winter peak is about 400 million cubic metres a day; the first Russian supply under discussion, 2 billion cubic metres a year, averages roughly 5.5 million cubic metres a day.
According to a compilation by Iran International, Saeed Tavakoli, managing director of the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC), said on 1 November that strikes on 4 processing plants had knocked out 230 million cubic metres a day of capacity, of which repairs had restored 100 million. The 130 million cubic metres a day still offline equals about 16% of last year's daily output. Gas supplies to cement plants have been cut since 23 October, and the plants have switched to fuel oil.
The Russian channel produces dependence more than volume. In January 2025 Putin outlined supply of 2 billion cubic metres a year in a first phase, potentially rising to 55 billion. On a daily average, 2 billion cubic metres is less than 2% of the winter peak shortfall. Progress was announced in October 2026, but no firm delivery date or pipeline financing has been confirmed. Limited initial volumes could move through existing infrastructure via Azerbaijan; the 55 billion cubic metre target would require a new pipeline and a transit agreement.
Voice of Emirates, citing IRNA (state media), wrote that the structural gap was already 250–300 million cubic metres a day before the war. Distribution networks in Mazandaran, Golestan and North Khorasan are expected to come under strain, and NIGC has warned of supply problems in about 11 provinces. Officials say lowering heating by 1 degree saves 25 million cubic metres a day, equal to the daily output of one South Pars phase. The figures come from Iranian officials and could not be independently verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
War damage has pushed Iran's winter shortfall to 400 million cubic metres a day, and the first Russian volumes on the table cover less than 2% of it. The Moscow visit deepens political dependence more than it adds supply. The most likely path is cuts to industry, calls for household conservation and a shift to fuel oil; export volumes may be sacrificed to domestic demand.
Likely effects
- Iranian industryNegativeWeeks
Gas cuts to energy-intensive sectors such as cement, which began on 23 October, widen over the winter and reduce output.
- Russia–Iran relationsUncertain6 months+
Gas supply talks increase Tehran's dependence on Moscow; the initial 2 billion cubic metres a year becomes a political bargaining chip.
- TürkiyeNegativeWeeks
As Iran prioritises domestic demand, the risk of curtailed pipeline exports at the winter peak rises; Türkiye's winter supply plan needs flexibility.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Cuts and a shift to fuel oil60%
Industrial cuts spread, power plants switch to fuel oil and pressure drops hit northern provinces.
Watch: NIGC province-by-province curtailment notices
- 2Fast repairs narrow the gap25%
Part of the remaining 130 million cubic metres of capacity is back in time for winter and cuts stay limited.
Watch: Tavakoli's repair update
- 3Russian gas arrives in time15%
The first Russian volumes via Azerbaijan begin before the end of December.
Watch: A delivery date announcement from Gazprom and NIGC
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Winter peak shortfall▼ 400 mcm/day
- Capacity offline▼ 130 mcm/day
- Initial Russian supply (avg)▲ 5.5 mcm/day