MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints12 October 2026, Monday
Black Sea tanker war-risk cover jumps 12.5-fold in months
War-risk cover for a tanker carrying oil in the Black Sea has risen from about $200,000 a few months ago to $2.5m, according to Evgeni Simeonov, special commercial manager of Lukoil in Bulgaria. The Burgas refinery has secured crude supply until early December.
According to Novinite, Simeonov told Bulgarian National Television on 12 October that insurance costs had risen more than tenfold. Oilprice puts the increase at 12.5-fold, or about $2.3m in extra cost per voyage. Simeonov's figure refers to the vessel he was discussing and does not imply a single premium for every tanker in the Black Sea. Oilprice says the London marine insurance market extended its high-risk listed area to the entire Black Sea in September, exempting the territorial waters of Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia and Türkiye.
Attacks on shipping lie behind the rise. Oilprice reports that 2 merchant vessels were struck by drones in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone on 6 October. The Togo-flagged Alfa Watan sank, and 10 seafarers, 9 of them Syrian, are missing. Novinite says the Burgas refinery is producing diesel at 88–90% of capacity and its tanks are full. The refinery's exemption from US sanctions expires on 22 October. Bloomberg data from August showed tanker earnings on the Novorossiysk–Augusta route hitting a record $440,948 a day.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The war-risk premium is now a cost line in the Black Sea as well as in Hormuz. With both basins getting dearer at once, the supply of tankers carrying crude to the Mediterranean is squeezed from two directions. Exempting territorial waters makes routes hugging the coast more valuable. The most likely path is that the premium stays high and the cost passes into delivered prices.
Likely effects
- Freight and insuranceNegativeWeeks
An extra $2.3m per voyage directly raises the delivered price of crude and products shipped out of the Black Sea.
- TürkiyeUncertain1–6 months
Exempting Turkish territorial waters favours the coastal route and traffic approaching the Turkish Straits; congestion and risk in the Bosphorus rise.
- Bulgarian fuel supplyNegativeWeeks
The expiry of the Burgas exemption on 22 October adds a second source of uncertainty for diesel supply in the region.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Premium stays high55%
Attacks remain sporadic but continue, and underwriters keep the basin-wide premium in place.
Watch: A new London market notice on the Black Sea listed area
- 2Premium rises further30%
Further vessel losses push the premium higher and some shipowners withdraw from the basin.
Watch: A new drone strike in the Bulgarian or Romanian economic zone
- 3Moratorium brings relief15%
A moratorium on attacks against civilian shipping brings the premium down.
Watch: Moscow and Kyiv signing the moratorium proposed by Ankara
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Tanker war cover (voyage)▼ $2.5m
- Burgas exemption ends▼ 22 Oct