MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security28 October 2026, Wednesday
Commission rules out a return to Russian gas even after the war
The European Commission said at a briefing on 28 October that imports of Russian gas and LNG will not resume even if the war in Ukraine ends. The statement responded to reports that US and Russian officials had discussed restarting Nord Stream with a US investor; the last deliveries will end in late 2027.
According to Interfax-Ukraine, the Commission's chief spokesperson said on 28 October that EU legislation rules out a return to Russian fossil fuels. The spokesperson stressed that Moscow had weaponised the EU's energy dependence and that the cost of that dependence remains heavy whether the war continues or ends. Energy spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen noted that the REPowerEU regulation is independent of sanctions and remains in force. Ukrainska Pravda reports that the regulation, adopted in January 2026, bans Russian LNG from early 2027 and pipeline gas from autumn 2027; the last remaining deliveries will end in late 2027.
The trigger was diplomatic. Ukrainska Pravda, citing European Pravda, wrote that restarting Nord Stream with a US investor was discussed in US–Russia talks attended by US special envoy Jared Kushner; the source relies on a Reuters report dated 8 October. There is a nuance in the Commission's position: Itkonen said it is not the Commission that decides whether Nord Stream operates in the EU. Euronews data cited by Ukrainska Pravda show Europe paid a record 7.3 billion euros for Russian Arctic gas in the first 8 months of 2026, already more than in all of 2025. In other words, the ban timetable is firm, but import volumes are rising in the last year before it bites.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The Commission is trying to close off the Nord Stream scenario floated in the US–Russia channel by pointing to the legal timetable. Yet Itkonen's remark that the Commission does not decide the pipeline's fate suggests the final word may lie with member states and in US–Russia bargaining. The record 7.3 billion euros in LNG payments shows Europe becoming more dependent on Russian gas in the near term as the ban approaches.
Likely effects
- European gas supplyNegative6 months+
The exit of Russian LNG in early 2027 squeezes buyers seeking US and Qatari LNG to replace Arctic volumes into the same winter; the replacement volume has not been disclosed.
- EU–US relationsNegative1–6 months
Because a US envoy's Nord Stream talks clash with the Commission's ban timetable, they open a new line of friction in transatlantic energy bargaining.
- TürkiyeUncertain6 months+
Russian gas leaving Europe puts the value of TurkStream and the lines crossing Türkiye up for debate; Türkiye's intermediary role gains weight in the bargaining.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Timetable holds65%
The REPowerEU timetable stays unchanged and the Nord Stream debate finds no traction inside the EU.
Watch: Commission implementation guidance ahead of the early-2027 LNG ban and member state exemption requests
- 2Drawn into peace bargaining25%
Nord Stream is added to a ceasefire package and some member states push to loosen the timetable.
Watch: An official reference to Nord Stream in US–Russia talks or a change of stance by the German government
- 3Ban accelerates10%
In reaction to record imports, the EU brings forward the date of the last deliveries.
Watch: A proposal in the European Parliament or Council to shorten the timetable
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Russian LNG ban▼ Early 2027
- Russian LNG, Jan–Aug▲ €7.3bn