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RegionSub-Saharan Africa

MediumII Cyber Warfare & Critical Infrastructure27 October 2026, Tuesday

Diesel shortage knocks out mobile networks and mobile money in Congo

ARPCE, the telecoms regulator of the Republic of Congo, reported partial and total outages of voice, internet and mobile money services on 27 October. Operators receive an average of nine hours of grid power a day, and backup generators cannot find diesel.

Location: BRAZZAVILLE

According to a 27 October report in Les Dépêches de Brazzaville, ARPCE checks with operators found that daily grid power averages just nine hours. Backup batteries add only six hours of autonomy, leaving base stations dependent on diesel generators for the rest of the day. Helios Towers, which runs the base station infrastructure, needs about 100,000 litres of diesel a week, or 400,000 litres a month, for its 550 towers in the country. The outages hit not only towers but also network cores and data centres. Because rural sites depend on equipment in the big cities, failures cascade through the system.

Ecofin reports that ARPCE has referred the situation to the Prime Minister's office and is working with the national oil company SNPC to improve fuel supply. The regulator warned that the outages seen on 27 October will continue until the energy situation improves. The cause of the shortage and an end date have not been disclosed. A GSMA report from November 2024 says fuel purchase and transport account for 30-60% of operator costs in many African countries. The same report finds diesel-generated power in the region three to four times more expensive than grid electricity.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The Congo outage is not a cyber attack, but the result is the same: critical communications infrastructure fails because it depends on a single fuel input. Nine hours of grid power and six of battery leave the rest of the day to diesel, and when the diesel does not arrive, voice, data and mobile money collapse together. Intermittent outages until fuel supply recovers are the most likely path.

Likely effects

  • Mobile money and paymentsNegativeWeeks

    Mobile money outages halt non-cash payments, delaying trade and salary payments.

  • Operator costsNegative1–6 months

    Fuel, which can make up 30-60% of costs, becomes more expensive in a shortage, pushing tower companies to accelerate solar and battery investment.

  • Regional precedentUncertain1–6 months

    Other diesel-dependent Central African networks gain a test case of a fuel shortage turning into a communications blackout.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Intermittent outages persist55%

    SNPC deliveries partly recover, but regional outages recur for weeks.

    Watch: New ARPCE service status statements and SNPC fuel distribution notices

  2. 2
    Rapid normalisation30%

    Emergency government measures bring diesel supply back to adequate levels quickly.

    Watch: Diesel sales returning to normal at stations in Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire

  3. 3
    Outages deepen15%

    The fuel crisis drags on, and data centres and banking systems also suffer extended outages.

    Watch: A service suspension notice from banks or mobile money operators

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Daily grid power▼ 9 hours
  • Monthly diesel need (550 towers)▼ 400,000 L

Sources

  1. Les Dépêches de Brazzaville (ADIAC) — Crise de carburant : les réseaux télécoms à bout de souffle
  2. Ecofin Agency — Republic of Congo: Fuel Shortages Disrupt Telecom Networks, Expose Diesel Dependence
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