MediumVI Energy Politics & Supply Security28 October 2026, Wednesday
Tanzania announces its first major gas find in a decade at Mnazi Bay
Energy Minister Juma Homera announced on 27 October that the Kasa-1X ST2 well holds an estimated 223 billion cubic feet of gas. Maurel & Prom of France, which operates the well with a 60% stake, had put the volume at about 200 billion cubic feet on 22 October and has not yet classified the figure as reserves.
According to The Citizen, this is the first new gas discovery announced in Tanzania since 2015. The well lies in the Mnazi Bay licence in the Mtwara region; the stake of state company TPDC was raised from 20% to 40% in 2024. The Chanzo reports that Maurel & Prom has not classified its own 200 billion cubic foot estimate as gas in place, contingent resources or proven reserves. No public explanation has been given for the 23 billion cubic foot gap between the government's 223 billion figure and the company's.
The two sources also give different production timetables. The Citizen writes that the well will produce about 30 million cubic feet a day for at least 10 years. The Chanzo says the company expects first production from Kasa in November with gross potential of 50 million cubic feet a day, and stresses that this is a plan. Once the MB-5 and MS-2 wells on the same licence came on stream, field output rose to about 130 million cubic feet a day; the processing plant has been tested at 150 million.
The find matters for the power balance. Africanews says Tanzania generates about 80% of its electricity from gas, and more than 80% of Mnazi Bay gas goes to TANESCO power plants in Mtwara and Dar es Salaam. Kenya, to the north, is eyeing the same source. Business Daily reported on 28 October that the Treasury has put the cost of a 1,200 MW floating LNG power plant at Dongo Kundu in Mombasa at 39 billion shillings. Kenya has no proven gas reserves and in 2021 signed a deal with Tanzania for a pipeline from Mtwara to Mombasa.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The find could ease Tanzania's dependence on gas for power generation in the near term. Yet the 23 billion cubic foot gap between government and operator, and an unclassified estimate, show the figure is still a hope rather than a reserve. The real test is whether first gas arrives in November, and whether daily flow comes in at 30 or 50 million cubic feet. The most likely path is a small but tangible contribution to domestic power supply.
Likely effects
- Tanzanian power supplyPositive1–6 months
Because 80% of the gas goes to power, an extra 30–50 million cubic feet a day could reduce the need for generation from imported fuel.
- Kenya's LNG planUncertain6 months+
Kenya is seeking Tanzanian gas for its 1,200 MW floating plant; extra volume at Mtwara could revive pipeline talks, though volumes are still small for export.
- Investor confidenceNegative1–6 months
If the gap between the official and operator figures goes unexplained, trust in reserve statements and the timetable for small-scale LNG investment could suffer.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Limited first gas in November55%
The Kasa well starts producing about 30 million cubic feet a day in November, and the volume debate is left to later appraisal wells.
Watch: Maurel & Prom's November production update and Mnazi Bay daily flow
- 2Timetable slips30%
First production slips into 2027 as classification and tie-in work is delayed.
Watch: A new date for Kasa from TPDC or Maurel & Prom
- 3Volume revised upwards15%
Appraisal drilling confirms the government's 223 billion figure or more, and gas talks with Kenya accelerate.
Watch: An independent reserves audit or a Kenya–Tanzania energy ministers' meeting
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Government volume estimate▲ 223 bcf
- Mnazi Bay daily output▲ ~130 mmcf